2.5 for Trump then 2.75 for Biden?
Nope ... the odds did not reverse. That's an arbitrage opportunity and I don't think a bookmaker is that stupid.
The odds for Biden will always be under 2.
Maximum loss is the premium you paid.
BUT ...... Beware on expiry day and close any positions that might close ITM. You do not want to deal with auto exercise
IMO ..... Only one way to trade this election
Buy an OTM Weekly Option Strangle on QQQ or DIA or SPY.
Enter on Tuesday, November 03.
Expiry on Friday, November 06.
And don't forget to consider the SPY options that expire on Wednesday, November 04...
That's not an arbitrage opportunity.
Any arbitrage opportunity is in the odds being above 2.00 for the Democratic Party to win the Popular Vote. $200+ payout on $100 bet.
Currently the BCLC has those odds at 1.12. $112 payout on $100 bet.
I am looking for a legitimate source who has the odds...
The odds for the Republican Party to win the Popular Vote are now at 6.00. $600 payout for a $100 bet.
I got in when the odds where 4.75. $475 payout for $100 bet.
I am thinking of buying a 1-strike OTM SPY strangle (calls and puts) on Tuesday, November 3 - the day of the US election.
I prefer the Wednesday Nov 04 options - but I am concerned about any delay in the results.
So I might go with the Friday Nov 06 options. If I go with the Friday options...
Question: Is there an arbitrage opportunity?
The Canadian Lotto's have the odds of the Republican Party winning the Popular Vote at 5.50. Which I placed a $100 bet when the odds where 4.75. The Democratic Part odds are 1.15.
I am looking for any US State lotto that has the odds on the...
...... Popular Vote Winner
RE: 2020 Presidential Election
The Canadian Lotto ( www.bclc.com ) has 4.75 odds on the Republican Party winning the Popular Vote.
I placed a $100 bet for a payout of $475.00
The odds for Donald Trump to win the Presidential Election are 2.45, $100 bet for a...