Fighting the urge to chase this move....
I need a life coach to come and take my mouse when I get the urge to sell a winning position. :banghead:
Congrats if you are still short!
Similar setup in '29, fed started tightening at the top of a parabola, right as the economy cratered. Then the government started spending, spending spending. Then all nations sent young men into battle.
Trading, 12 years off and on, mostly stocks & options. Momo chasing, oversold reversals, trend pullbacks, etc.
Index <1hr timeframe bars, less than a year. But it jumped right out at me one day.
You guyz (assuming that is your gender) have been demonstrating this technique very well. It works, and it's "obvious" when your turn off all your indicators, what you need to do to take money from other traders who are chasing price into the wall. I've been on the wrong side of this trade...
For that system, the stop was basically unnecessary because it was based on a volatility breakout. It was just better to get out on a trend reversal.
However, I never tried an S/R algo which could probably use tight stops, based on the success people are having.
Very good question! It is...
Years ago I got curious about trading systems and did a lot of backtesting.
There were two ways to kill a profitable system (gradually or all at once, unexpectedly):
1. Stops too tight
2. Averaging down
There's a lot of hedge funds still short and they're watching carefully now, to see if we break this flag and if any more refineries catch fire. Energy availability is the alpha input to all economic activity, and a lot of consumers are cashing in their chips to pay the gas bill. :(
Long 100 Sqqq in anticipation of the break of the huge flag we just traced out... Might regret it, but I've lost money all year fighting the down trend. I'm not insane!