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And the bells ring! The new trading year has begun!

Why would you pay for a chatroom?

The convexity is "unique" to HJ. Other spread months don't behave that way. This is due to the seasonality effect and end of season storage. HJ is acting like an option. It has a decay to it and will continue to decay going into the Feb delivery. But like all options, it also has a...

So they are no longer affiliated with TOS?

Is Tasty Trade their own brokerage? I always thought they were affiliated with TOS. I'm confused what is the difference. Is Tasty Trade a sub group within TOS or their own independent brokerage?

For those who are interested, this is a fascinating read of the crash of 29 with a little more daily color on what was happening leading up to the move and who some of the bigger players were. We only read about Livermore but there were many other interesting characters. Which lends credence...

We do know how he lost it. There were interviews of his son and step daughter. After the SEC was created in the 1930's, they outlawed most of the tactics he used to make money. He admitted this. This is what drove him into depression. I should say deep depression because he was not yet...

Happy New Years guys! Have a prosperous and healthy 2017!

That's what I'm saying. If the drawdown is in winterblend, which it is, then that is not a reason for higher prices. No one is going to pay up for winterblend especially after a 40 cent rally in 6 weeks. Supply issues are rare in late winter, the market is much more responsive in summer...

Prompt month has rallied from 1.30 to 1.70 in 6 weeks. That is a huge move and I don't believe the fundamentals supported that move. Also, keep in mind this is winter blend. You can't mix winter with summer so whoever is holding winter blend when the refiners switch over in about 6 weeks, you...

You misread my post. I said we were below historical norms on interest rates, not debt level. Rates are VERY far below historical norms. But you are incorrect when you say "any" increase. We are still a long ways away from increases having a destructive effect on our debt service. An excel...

No.

Most ridiculous thing I ever heard. Thanks for providing the liquidity though.

Regarding storage: I'm attaching a comprehensive white paper (not mine) on this topic. A man by the name of Working (1934) first assembled the theory of storage asserting that a commodity holder has risk in not selling his asset today and holding it for future sale. He is compelled to hold...

Huh? I would stop yourself out on that trade capadre.

Terrible idea. You are much better off selling the index puts. There are no "safe" stocks. If you are under 35 and want to take the risk of selling premium, fine. You have your whole life to go back to work and make it back. If you are over 35, don't do this shit. If you lose 50% of your...

Thanks guys. Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah to all. It's great to be a part of one of the longest running and highest quality trading threads on ET.

Always learning. Never stop learning. Not taking classes. This business changes everyday. Whatever you learned last year is in the past. I still have a lot to learn as do we all.

You just walked into my wheelhouse. LOL. I did a paper on this. I'll tell you what, this is pretty complicated stuff. Over the holiday I'll do my best to summarize my research and explain this topic on here.

There is no full carry in oil like there is in grain. The spread value is governed by the marginal cost of storage which changes in real time. Regarding my "thesis", it's been widely reported that producers have been selling the 17 and 18 strips aggressively to lock in the forward prices so...