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Guess what? I Guess that I'd rather be profitable from my Guessing instead of being really smart and posting on ET all day long :)

A trader wants the premium, not the stock. An investor who wants to own stock at a certain price will sell OTM puts. If wrong, he just keeps the premium. If right, he acquires the stock at a more advantageous price.

Nahhh, it's just one of those worthless continuos loops :)

4Q, Thanks for explaining your preference for the synthetic over the natural. You have the mechanics right but not all of the details. >> another way to exit the trade would be to Sell to Open 2 Sep $35P for something in excess of the $5.00 extrinsic value. << Yes, selling that 35...

If December is the next month available after the two front months then TLT is on the #3 cycle (Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec). That means that Oct options will be available when August expires.

Nothing personal but it never ceases to amaze me that peope pay their commission rate and get such treatment.

Because of the 1:20 reverse split, your contract now covers 5 shares. For details, you can go to the CBOE.com website. You can do a search on the 5 letter symbol or look under TRADING TOOLS and then CONTRACT ADJUSTMENTS (search for AIG).

Nah, I'm just your every day meat and potatoes retail trader who knows a little too much for his own good :) But I do trade volatility for selective EA's.

It's amazing what you can do when you can count to 21 :)

I'm reading into this statement a bit, so ... You can't price an earnings event accurately. In more normal years (last year's dive is a problem), you can get a ball park figure by assuming that it will do this quarter what it did in previous quarters (see historical IV graph). You can...

IMO, last year's swan dive alterered the "normal" pattern of pre earnings IV expansion. Because IV got so high last fall, we've been in a down trending contraction and in general, the individual spikes have been less since they're swimming upstream. Prior to that effect, if involved in more...

There are a lot of moving parts involved in determining what MIGHT be on a future date. But once you make your major assumptions (time, underlying price and volatility). determining what the option price will be only entails using a pricing formula. You can find them online, use stand alone...

The simple answer is use a pricing formula but I suspect you are looking for something more complex. What exactly are you trying to figure out, particularly in terms of a pending EA?

Deep ITM will have more slippage (larger spreads). The number of transactions (commissions) will likely be higher since more legs are ITM. You have the potential to save on commissions only if the legs (short) are OTM and expire. Early exercise will also be an issue with ITM.

Timing is direction when it comes to stock. The "time" to buy stock is just before/during an up move. And not surprisingly, it's the opposite for short stock. You have every right to avoid the facts. But for those unfmiliar with synthetics, any adjustment made to the synthetic has the same...

It's only fun if you make money. You only make money if your timing is right. Adjusting the synthetic is no easier (or harder) than adjusting the natural. They're the same.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote from JohnGreen: Psychology also plays a big role. Can you stand large shifts in your account value? Are your nerves like steel, or do you buckle under pressure? Do you freeze when the "heat" is on, and stand...

It depends on what you're selling. On one side they help. On the other, they hurt.

Ya can't believe everything that you read here :D

Options trading near parity (no time premium) can lead to early exercise if they trade below parity intraday