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The first day of the month is "not" an edge Bagger. It's just a significant data point. There is a difference.

Easy there skippy...trying to elevate my blood pressure? :)

It's showing the significance compared to other days. The first day of the month clearly is not like any other day of the month and those graphs clearly show that.

Nice work Baggerlord!

Come again? I've posted 3 times on this 15 page thread. All I asked him why with such a melodramatic thread title if he is selling a 7 vol in spy calls if he is so bearish. He later added the post on the ES short which is no where to be found on this thread. And Frank, you've been on ET as...

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-s-p-has-topped.307293/page-7#post-4417228 https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-s-p-has-topped.307293/page-11#post-4417922

What gives right? Why sell $2 calls in SPY? I mean I don't mind the call. I just don't get the selling of calls and even more annoying, why SPY calls over ES calls. Span margin! Come on. It's amateur hour here. This market could crash and this guy is going to take the equivalent of 20 ES...

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-s-p-has-topped.307293/page-7#post-4417228 They went out at .70 to .75 today. I gave you the benefit of the doubt that you sold the high tick of the day. Congrats, you sold a 7 vol call. Bloody brilliant. Leave your 200 pt downside tgt out of...

This guy shorted "presumably" Mar 240 SPY calls at 1.4. That's the equivalent of making 14 handles on the ES. This is a joke. He's being a drama queen with his downside targets of 50 to 200 handles when the idiot capped his profit at 14. You would think the dude would have more conviction to...

I'm on the list right Surf? Did Baron make it?

It's target demographic is 12 to 30 year olds. You and I are not who they are targeting. But this app only confirms what I already knew, I have no idea what makes millennials tick. Strange folks they are.

That stock photo you see of theirs is 10 years old. It's a ghost town now.

Brent is tightening fast and WTI not far behind. The Dec17/18 strip is already in backwardation.

Option vol is at decade lows. Actual stat vol is almost non existent. But spreads are moving! Man are they moving.

We finally broke the 1% streak in ES.

You model the forward curve to trade the forward curve, not the front month. The front month is driven by the delivery process into Cushing. There are many factors one could look at to try to understand it but it's largely noise.

You seem to not know the difference between "prediction" and "value". I have no idea why. The curve in energy is instructive on whether its optimal to sell into the spot market or sell forward. The curve is absolutely a representation of the economics of storage. It's a real price. This...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-06-01/giant-oil-trader-vitol-makes-billions-in-volatile-times "Over half a century (the company will celebrate its 50th anniversary in August) Vitol has never suffered an annual loss. Profits surged from just $22.9 million in 1995 to a record $2.28...

Are you serious. First you lecture me on no arbitrage. You then admit it fails under certain market conditions. You ranted for pages and pages on the forward pricing and how you know all about it then you say you can't do it. I'm done here. And btw sir, Vitol has NEVER lost money in the...