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  1. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Let me help you out here. Read this book: Hedge Hogs: The Cowboy Traders Behind Wall Street's Largest Hedge Fund Disaster May 21, 2013 by Barbara T. Dreyfuss It goes into details about the rivalry between John Arnold and Brian Hunter. Brian was a quant, Arnold was a fundamental guy. Hunter...
  2. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Hold on here. I know the numbers. He ran his fund for 9 years. He had and still has to this very day the highest return of any man, women or child EVER for a hedge fund. He had one down year that was around 3%. His up years were over 100%. And the dude was not doing on that with a 5...
  3. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Found it. Enjoy. Source: http://www.risk.net/energy-risk/feature/2354055/jo... In an exclusive interview, John Arnold talks to Alexander Osipovich about the extraordinary success of his former hedge fund, Centaurus Advisors, the difficulty of hiring good traders and why he walked away from...
  4. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Let me try to bring this thread back to a normal conversation. Gotcha, I'm going to make an effort here to give you my opinion on why energy is the best market to trade. It's only my opinion. And I'm not charging anyone for this advice so people can take it or leave it. I've traded...
  5. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    You are not going to like this answer. If you want to know bad enough, you will summon the will to find out on your own. I have nothing to sell you. If you want to believe something doesn't work, then believe that. I have no burning desire to change your mind. I encourage you and everyone...
  6. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    There is no holy grail. Nobody is saying that. The whole purpose of trading anything whether it's bitcoin or baseball cards is to be able to sift through large amounts of data and extract a signal from the noise. The problem with prompt month energy anything is that it's mostly noise and...
  7. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Dude, I've been trading for 20 years. I've blown out "more" then a few times. All of them in the late 90's. PM your cell and your name and I'll send you whatever you want to see. Anything else huckleberry?
  8. M

    The ACD Method

    The book is relevant because it's important to understand the historical precedent on why things did what they did. Too many guys on ET forget that the world is older then 12 months. People say things like the dollar always does this or higher rates are bad. There is an entire history of...
  9. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Bone, here is the issue. Energy unlike scalping ES, requires a lot of work. You and I both know this. It's why I do most of my trading in this sector because there are some real edges left. But the fact of the matter is, retail traders don't have a chance here and gotcha is proving that...
  10. M

    The ACD Method

    That's weird. It was on there and now it's not. The book is: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis by Ashraf Laidi.
  11. M

    Elite Trader Member Surfer Featured in Newsweek

    Who are you talking about? I was at this event. There were very few women there. One of the beauties was Baron's wife! Another was Surf's wife! LBR is in the pic in the far back, yes Linda Bradford Rashke of market wizard fame. Another women was one of the event photographers. There were...
  12. M

    The ACD Method

    One of the best books I recommend for this is: I am amazed how many people have not read this book. This is a very easy to read book and honestly, might be the best book on global macro trading. This book talks about the various important historical periods for different currencies, talks...
  13. M

    The ACD Method

    USD/JPY has been weak for awhile. There is no tell there. But the Euro has not found a bid in a long time. I look for unusual things on a tell. This rally has been led by the dollar and rates. Now we have a flattening yield curve. The dollar's bid is softening and the Euro makes up 60% of...
  14. M

    The ACD Method

    Watch the Euro right now for the tell in risk assets. If we take out 1.10, katy bar the door.
  15. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    I'm not talking about punting on front month crude which is pure gambling (hence my horse race comparison). I'm talking about trading energy spreads where you can actually derive an edge and those spreads are highly dependent on fundamentals. Of course front month moves all over the place like...
  16. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    If you are going to daytrade CL you might as well gamble on horses. More fun. Long term you better know your fundamentals cold.
  17. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    Great book. Not about OPEC. About all the corrupt former NYMEX chairmen over the years and all the games played down on the floor there. The stuff on the old potato market are classic. Well worth the read.
  18. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    You do realize that our planet will not exist in the far future after our sun implodes. The entire galaxy will be gone. On to the next one. Everything you see around you is on an egg timer. Tick tock.
  19. M

    Crude is screwed, man.

    So are you long or short? LOL.
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