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Yes. There is severe over crowding in the short end of yield curve trade (2/10)s and even 3mo/2yr, these players are holding that front end down and will get destroyed if and when the Libor/OIS spread blows out. When you look back in 2008 when the spread went from 50 bps to over 400 you didn't...

LIBOR/OIS spreads...

I agree with SIV. In general, the term structure in volatility follows the general theory of uncertainty. That is, in general vol is in contango because we are more certain of the short term then the long term. And the tenor in vol reflects that. That gets distorted in general around...

Guys, this is a Bayesian math problem. It's the first question you get in an interview to be a market maker at Susquehanna.

Huh? Why? They already discounted the K and M contacts. You mean buy them right?

Yes, I understand that. But let me give you my perspective. The market hates uncertainty. The market likes certainty even if the certain outcome is bad. After the first round, if there is no majority which there probably won't be, the top two candidates will be in the runnoff. Odds are...

Don't let me stop you from that! I'm always interested in these experiments. I know one for certain from my anecdotal experience, my largest losses have always happened when sitting in a position with exposure against a confirmed 30NL. In every single instance I was fighting a confirmation...

I'm confused. Why would K be cranked up? The election is on the 19th. Think of it as an earnings announcement. After the stock reports, vol gets crushed. Would would anything after J be bid up?

The french election is April 23rd. If no one wins a majority, there is a runnoff on May 7th. The vix term structure goes back into contango immediately after the election.

The number lines do an excellent job of describing the current market environment for that product. For daytrading they are best used for intra-day bias. So if you have a +20 NL I would not be looking to take short trades. Only longs.

Bob, it's the French election. The structure reverts right after the election. Nothing to see here.

Let me help you. Make it a habit to use Quandl to get your data. Here is the COT data for Crude: https://www.quandl.com/data/CFTC/CL_F_ALL-Commitment-of-Traders-Crude-Oil-Light-Sweet-Futures-Only-067651

Shitty trade with vol on the lows...

Euro...

Dr. Copper not feeling well...

I think this documentary showed that "real" trading is boring but very hard work. This is a serious business. These guys had to defend their strategy, their process and their abilities. Very easy to do on a message board, much harder to do in person when people are staring you down and...

I love the news aggregator of finviz. The left column is news only and the right column is stuff from blogs. In the energy space, the RBN blog is the best content out there hands down. John Kemp at Reuters is outstanding as well.

This is an interesting video where various emerging managers are grilled by professionals on why they should be allocated capital. The questions asked are excellent things all traders should think about whether they are trying to raise funds or just trade for themselves.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-11/wtirbob-extend-gains-after-biggest-crude-inventory-draw-2017?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29