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I'll give you kudos for the accountability. You post your trades in real time and you accurately reflect the results. I can't knock that. That's rare on ET. I don't understand the trades but that's fine. The only criticism I have is I wish you would explain your reasoning for your...

What do your number lines say?

Stock is up 20% since this question. Still love ya Zany! :)

You could fade at the monthly A up around 34.28. I'm long a bunch of XOP names as I think energy is so beat up.

I'm bullish longer term but my short term concern is there is too much dumb money long. Thanks to CNBC telling everyone every day this is the bottom of the 45 to 55 range. So you could see another flush. Fundamentally oil should probably be at 55. But the short term sentiment is really an...

Yeah bud, I think we get that. I suspect the OP was trolling.

What if you were a rich man....

I just scanned my inbox, unless you used a different alias we have never chatted before privately so perhaps you spoke to someone else. Anyway, feel free to PM me.

That is not true. Optimizing physical assets is one way for sure. But energy markets are still highly inefficient. Edges can be found in any market through data and statistical analysis. As I said before, I do think this is getting harder as data is becoming easier and easier to get. I...

Come on. You're bloviating. We can post videos, do one on one stuff, whatever. And more importantly there is a built in check and balance here with other members jumping in and playing devils advocate. Stop making excuses and start with you first question. If you hate the responses you get...

Just post your questions here. We'll all answer them for free. Why deal with shysters privately.

I'm not sure what you mean by modelling the individual legs. The spread in both oil and natural gas is not a combination of two months but an actual economic value, it's the cost of storage. It's something real. So when you model a spread you are modeling the economic benefit of storing oil...

Welcome back to the board! I thought you left us for a financial services job. Are you trading full time again?

This is not the way to look at it. For one, fundamentals do not change often. They are fairly easy to forecast and there is not a lot of discrepancy even for publicly available forecasts. The hard part is dealing with the dislocations. Let me provide an example in the stock world since it...

Back to 973. Volatility is back!

Anyone using this?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-07/euro-is-nothing-but-a-flow-show-and-analysts-are-getting-worried

Has anyone read this book yet about the Libor scandal? The Spider Network: The Wild Story of a Math Genius, a Gang of Backstabbing Bankers, and One of the Greatest Scams in Financial History Hardcover – March 21, 2017 by David Enrich (Author)

Finding unique inputs is a huge edge in a model. I can't share that. I'll be happy to answer general questions about natural gas.

Nope. I built my own model and use my own data.