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You do realize that the cash VIX and the VIX futures are separate entities right? Never mind. So did we really land on the moon or not?

There is no direct instrument. The actual index pricing is derived from USO options. There is no way for you to capture the 30 day fixed term structure. You can buy ATM USO options but you can't effectively isolate the vol.

Commodities are not meant to bought and held long term. Just pull up a long term chart of the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index chart. It ain't pretty. And that's not because commodities always go down, it because of the cost associated with holding any physical long term whether it be copper...

Holding costs are not stable. Where are you getting that from? Look, there is a huge tradeable market out there for moving oil into and out of storage as well as all the various blends. The cost to move oil from point A to point B whether by pipeline, rail, or cargo changes minute by minute...

Also, if prices rise, one would expect the contango to flatten more thereby minimizing your cost. If oil prices make new lows however, the contango could widen and increase your negative roll yield.

No. Here is what you need to understand. The cost of holding "spot" oil is the cost of oil itself, the interest cost and the actual cost of storage at Cushing or somewhere else. There is no "spot" price without the other two. So if you want to warehouse oil, which is actually what you are...

I understand what you are saying but prices are not low. Almost every forecast I have seen for natural gas including the most bullish has the avg forwward 12 month strip between 3.00 and 3.25. We are slightly under that now as storage is still slightly higher then normal. The market for the...

USO is better now that the contango is flattening. When oil has steep contango you are not going to be able to hold longs without paying for the carry. There is no way around that. This is as tight as the curve has been in sometime. No reason why you can't hold USO.

You need to be careful when using the word "low" with commodity prices. What makes you think natty prices are "low"? I think they are fairly valued at 3.00. The forward curve looks fairly priced. Last year storage was running about 20% to 30% above it's 5 year avg and now we have closed that...

Thanks Mr. Yanks. :)

Nice find!

It's only the 2nd most popular investment book in the last 60 years. I think the first edition came out in the early 60's. LOL.

https://tradingeconomics.com/ This is one of my fav sites. They do charge for their historical data. If you want to piecemeal it on the cheap, usually each countries central bank's website provides the data for free but it will be a tedious process.

This is complicated. Since I trade energy, yes, I do look at a lot of things outside ACD. ACD forms the basis of my sentiment forecasting. But with energy, you HAVE to look at fundamentals. I don't want to go into what I use, just that I use them. For things like stocks, fundamentals are...

I agree. If I were going to build a model for stocks, I would certainly look at the CANSLIM method of O'Neils. His books are outstanding.

I keep two running strategies. One is completely discretionary. One is completely automated. Both are profitable. But the automated one is miles better on a risk adjusted basis. When you automate it make the statistical analysis much easier. If you have rules and models, you can test your...

The best decision I ever made was moving over to automated trading.

I'm long a bunch of energy stuff, mostly in the nat gas space. Most of it is just because they are so beat up. Good long term holds.

The Dollar is getting smoked across the board today.

FX options are notoriously cheap. Selling premium for anything further then ATM is going to be a waste.