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http://tradertest.org/ https://rankyourbrain.com/mental-math Get to work!

But you are 100% correct. It absolutely is decorrelated from the equity markets. :)

The warm weather would "steepen" the contango, not shorten it. Warm weather "increases" the demand for storage. That "term" premium goes up. That is where he gets fucked on the call. During cold weather, you're pulling molecules "out of" storage thereby pushing the curve into a more...

That "residual' is the synthetic call option embedded in the curve for available storage capacity for the given term. So sure, selling a naked call on tight capacity in a constrained market during peak season does have some premium. There are better ways to make a living. But, yeah it's there...

It's pure risk. Nothing to exploit. LOL. Winter gas trades at a premium for a reason.

There is not a gap. Each month is it's own unique physically settled contract. There are strong seasonal differences in various months in natural gas. There is nothing to exploit here. The Nov contract is specifically for that date. If you owned physical storage, you could buy gas for nov...

This is a trading website I believe.

Let the games begin. LOL.

https://books.google.com/books?id=iglKD1whyVgC&pg=PT472&lpg=PT472&dq=brian+hunter+2007+hurricane&source=bl&ots=o8sfyR_wFe&sig=ylugzvRzrEiYNBuJat3HIchvdQw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjS3I23-ZnXAhUTmoMKHbtTC7Y4ChDoAQgzMAI#v=onepage&q=brian%20hunter%202007%20hurricane&f=false Here is a description of...

There are options on HJ.

Well no. Both guys were running multi-billion dollar funds. They were not using credit. This trade was going back and forth. Some bad luck hit Hunter when just as the trade was starting to work for him, he got hit with whatever that massive hurricane was in 2007. HJ exploded and Arnold...

It was more liquidity then leverage.

Alright. Since your so damn appreciative of my suggestions, I'll offer one more. Usually I get my fingers bitten off trying to help people around here. Street Freak: A Memoir of Money and Madness Paperback – September 11, 2012 by Jared Dillian (Author) This is a great book written by a...

The books are a little different in format. What I liked about Hedge Hogs is they spent a lot of time talking about the personalities and backgrounds of both Arnold and Hunter. It was more personal. It spent less time explaining the natural gas market (most would find that boring) and more...

It's more complicated then just saying leverage. Again, if one reads the book you will see that "both" the main players were actually "trying" to force the other out. In other words, leverage was not used simply to juice returns or average into a loser, the leverage used by both Arnold and...

Mother Rock.

But so did Arnold and he made billions. We only criticize the losers. With John Arnold, we say he is the most successful hedge fund manager that ever lived. The youngest self made billionaire in US History.

You can add liquidity to that list. In the case of Amaranth, the devil was the infamous widowmaker spread (march/april natural gas). This spread for the most part is liquid for guys like you and me, but the size that Arnold and Hunter were throwing around was epic. They basically encapsulated...

Actually none of those are the reasons why they failed. You really need to read the book. There were very specific reasons that are unique to natural gas that caused the downfall. You really can't use standard retail trader reasons for their downfall.

Read this book: Hedge Hogs: The Cowboy Traders Behind Wall Street's Largest Hedge Fund Disaster Hardcover – May 21, 2013 by Barbara T. Dreyfuss (Author) It goes over the blowup in detail. Basically John Arnold took Brian Hunter down. This blowup was entirely in the natural gas market. So...