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https://www.ft.com/content/2bcb2dfc-7d14-11e7-9108-edda0bcbc928 Andurand hedge fund’s $100 oil bet stands out from the herd Please use the sharing tools found via the email icon at the top of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email...

He was short from the highs in 2013 all the way to the lows. Was also short from the highs in 2008 to the lows in 2009.

I did answer it. It's the curve itself that is in contango, not the spread. The spread is the "tool" used to trade the contango.

Forget about contracts. Think of it more in terms of continuous time. There is a settlement price every single day starting with spot, then spot +1, spot +2, etc. There are many energy markets that don't even have futures, its all OTC and they settle on daily benchmark pricing. Just think of...

Contango describes the shape of the forward curve. A spread is the tool you use to manipulate it. So whether you use a calendar spread or a butter fly or a condor, those are tools you use to trade the curve. For example, a curve might be in contango on the first 6 months but may flatten on...

Well, I'm sure he became more tactical before this summer. That was just when he was quoted. Anyway, it's obvious simply being long is not what did him in. Oil was just above 50 to start the year and it's a tad below that now. Not really a good way to explain losing 30%. The front end of...

I can copy and paste too. To quote Andy Hall this summer: “Whereas it once seemed positions could be held with an eye to a longer term secular appreciation, that is no longer the case.” Mr Hall said his fund would now take a more “opportunistic” approach to trading, abandoning his long-term...

Contango and backwardation always refer to the spread between two contracts. If the near month contract is below the far month, it's in contango. If the near month is above the far month, it's backwardated.

He is right, that sooner or later, rates will burst the equity bubble. I think this is a long way off. Ten year yields usually track or anticipate nominal GDP growth. And GDP growth is just not budging neither is inflation. He is right, that the longer it takes for growth to get here, the...

Stat vol in SPX printed a 3 handle today! Yes, a 3 handle.

You can't look at a continuous chart. That is going to show the cost of rolling into deep contango every month. Nobody who holds long term is going to pay that roll every month. They are simply going to buy further out in the curve. Ironically this is what got Hall but it's stupid to be a...

A 100% move up is a dead cat bounce? That is one hell of a cat. LOL. I love ET.

You are aware that oil prices have doubled off the lows since rig counts started rising right? LOL. There is a relationship between rig counts and oil prices but it's very messy and it lags by about 6 months. I certainly would never trade off of it and I don't know anyone that does.

Spoken like a true ETer. And by that I mean an FX billionaire who makes 600% returns using MACD. LOL.

I'm not saying it was that exact spread. Historically per his interviews, he has been long 3 to 5 years on the curve and short the front end. He is VERY active in all the 12 month strips and the Z7Z8 strip was particularly volatile after the Nov OPEC meeting. In the last 2 months that strip...

Not quite. Andy Hall is NOT long oil. He is long the curve. That means in general he is short the front end of the curve and long the back end. You may or may not know this Marty, but the forward curve got decimated the last 12 to 18 months. Why didn't he get just get out then you might...

This is an intelligent post. Damn that's rare on this site. Kudos.

You guys might want to watch the Yen....just sayin...

Brent is by far the hardest. I think Natural Gas is the easiest, followed by heating oil, gasoline and then WTI. None of these are easy, just on a relative basis.

That bet expired on the 4th of July as you know. We did make a fresh new high though before that. But the bet expired for us both. But I'll tell ya what Zany. Next time I'm in Chicago, steak is on me anyway. That's how the Maver rolls. :)