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  1. M

    If VIX is a measure of implied volatility in S&P options...

    This is not true. The determining factor for early exercise of an American option is the value one gets from receiving cash today at time t vs at expiration at time T. If one can earn interest on the cash received from period t to T, then there is a benefit from early exercise. This does not...
  2. M

    United Airlines ( UAL)

    The hits just keep on coming... http://abcnews.go.com/US/united-airlines-flight-diverted-dog-mistakenly-plane/story?id=53806484
  3. M

    First customer lawsuit against CSFB over XIV was filed.

    Why? What is your chief complaint?
  4. M

    The ACD Method

    Nobody on this thread trades the way I do, I can almost gurantee you that. I have no idea where you got that from. In fact, I don' even think anyone trades the same markets that I do. I think you need to read more of this thread. Nobody is following me. Everyone here is doing their own...
  5. M

    The ACD Method

    Man alive, did I really write that? Must have been a slow day. :)
  6. M

    First customer lawsuit against CSFB over XIV was filed.

    Nobody was filing lawsuits when it was up 1000%. Hmm....
  7. M

    The ACD Method

    Yup.
  8. M

    United Airlines ( UAL)

    Here's the rub. They did this mid flight. So unless you come equipped with a parachute, there ain't no leaving the plane.
  9. M

    United Airlines ( UAL)

    http://www.tmz.com/2018/03/14/united-airlines-dead-dog-damages-overhead/ Keep shorting this stock down to zero. There is no other airline on earth that has as bad as customer service as this airline. It's only a matter of time...
  10. M

    The ACD Method

    Yes, it's MUCH harder in commodities and FX which is probably why they are MUCH harder to trade in general. The only defense you have in this area is being able to focus on the big picture and optimize position sizing. If you think you are going to trade crude oil with a .30 stop off some...
  11. M

    The ACD Method

    There's your problem. You're screening. LOL. If you are using a screener that means whatever comes up will come up on everyone else's screener too right? So back to my old stories again. So when I first started trading back in my prop firm days I show up to work and what do I do? I run the...
  12. M

    Trend-following CTAs performing poorly in 2017 and 2018. Switch to mean reversion?

    Usually they are looking for underpriced puts or tail structures in general that are undervalued. Could be gold options, bond options, could be long treasuries/short credit, long yen calls, swiss franc calls, short the 2/10 yield curve, etc.
  13. M

    Trend-following CTAs performing poorly in 2017 and 2018. Switch to mean reversion?

    The so called "black swan funds" that are marketed to provide positive returns during a time of crisis while their long risk portfolios are getting killed.
  14. M

    The ACD Method

    Bitcoin is an asset. One that does not have cash flows nor is it technically a commodity yet. If I had to classify it, I would classify it as a collectable. Much like art or a classic car. However, it will not stay this way. If it would, it would be very bullish since collectibles grow over...
  15. M

    The ACD Method

    You picked a VERY crowded part of the market with a lot of noise. So here is one of the tells that you should spot that should give you pause. When I pull up all those stocks you mentioned, guess what? All the charts have the EXACT same pattern. It's the epitome of noise. Your job is to...
  16. M

    The ACD Method

    No. LOL. That is the wrong way to think about this. Think of it this way. Pretend you are a writer asking for advice on the next great American Novel. And I say to you all you need to do is string together some words mixing up your nouns, verbs, grammar structure, etc. Throw in a few plot...
  17. M

    The ACD Method

    I think as you keep on reading through the thread this question will be answered but I'll offer some input here. First, trade decisions should not be based on the A levels or the OR or I want to trade breakouts or fades, etc. The decision has to come from the number lines. You will see me...
  18. M

    The ACD Method

    OK, let's start here. Why did you choose this stock? One of the best attributes I believe ACD has is it's ability to allow traders to find rare opportunities in a universe of endless possibilities. It allows us to stay away from crowded and obvious trades. I'm not saying you were wrong to...
  19. M

    The ACD Method

    Good stuff and welcome to the board!
  20. M

    The ACD Method

    I'll tell you what koolaid. I think I've told this story many times before, but back in the days when I traded equities for Worldco, I had a mentor. I sat next to him and just watched him trade and just observed what he did and why he did it. Tried to see things from his perspective. Why...
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