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Raising fees on futures is going to destroy the economy? LOL. OK. This is ET afterall. If I had to choose between bailing out the entire industry to the tune of 500 billion and sending the bill to the taxpayers or paying another .05 per contract on futures, I'll take the fee thank you very much.

Did you read the above articles? LOL. Taleb actually explained it pretty well. Investors are path dependent. Meaning that in order to get outcome X they have to first get through x1, x2, x3...X. Example: say you playing Russian roulette. And there is a 1 out of a 100 chance you get the...

One more piece. This Q&A is good as it explains what I've been trying to say the focus of these products are. And that is "protection", not "prediction". https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nassim-taleb-tail-risk-hedging-000000014.html Yahoo Finance: You’re the Distinguished Scientific Advisor at...

From the FT article here is a graphic on tail fund performance the last 5 years. These returns seem high to me but the source is HFR.

And one from last month. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-06/tail-risk-hedge-funds-doubled-their-returns-on-volatility-spike Tail-Risk Hedge Funds Doubled Their Returns on Volatility Spike By Miles Weiss February 6, 2018, 3:00 PM CST LongTail Alpha bought VIX options for...

I found this article interesting from last year. I copied just a few excerpts. In it he does make reference to his bet on interest rates. https://www.ft.com/content/f9682d92-1626-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e “If you can stomach the negative carry, by all account go for it, but a low-vol fund...

I think it's all semantics...long vol or long tails. Spitznagel does exactly what Cole does, sell ATM options in the near term to finance the long tails further out. There maybe a marketing benefit to calling yourself a long tail fund as your expected annual returns most likely will be...

The last interview I saw him give he said most of his attention was being paid to treasuries and that he was building long term positions in DOTM puts since he firmly believes it will be higher rates that will be the source of the next tail event.

What I'm saying is that on Nov 22nd the stock was 1.84. Exactly one month later it was 8.14. So after he posted to short it, it went up, not down by a factor of 4. It eventually came back down after blowing everyone out.

Wait. So the stock quadrupled after he told everyone to short it? LOL.

I wash cars for a living. Discount my posts accordingly.

It doesn't matter what they are paid if all they are doing is buying OTM index puts. Investors can do that on their own for 0 and 0.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HDGE/holdings?p=HDGE Here are their top 5 holdings which make up about 19% of their portfolio.

That's the point. These guys get paid to find those areas. Any Tom, Dick or Harry can simply hedge their portfolio without paying the 2/20 on their own. The idea is to find where the value is. Shit, their is an ETF called "HDGE" that simply shorts over priced stocks if you wanted to take...

In the trading world we mark to market. Saying you are long at the current price means you would buy it now. You never posted your sale. So you are long from 69 to current prices. It was a horrible trade without question. If you want to keep trashing ET with this garbage, post your entries...

There are some excellent articles by Chris Cole you should check out that do the same thing. He runs Artemis Capital. He has written some very long detailed papers. I don't think you should try to replicate this and here is why. Both Cole and Taleb or Spitznagel really, get paid for...

Time stamp for Friday, March 23rd at 11:38 am central time was 69.92. That's your cost basis. That's the time of your original post.

You bought the highs bro. Good luck getting out.

To further the point on the thousand sets of trading costs is perhaps the most expensive one, opportunity costs. If one is college educated with marketable skills, the time spent trading in a quiet, low vol environment vs perhaps earning 60k to 80k or more in a professional job, is often the...

Actually, most the blowups happen on rallies and declining vol environments. Crashes or high vol tapes usually are much easier to trade. I know guys who couldn't find their way out of a brown paper bag with a flashlight make money during the crashes then blow up fading the rallies the next 5...