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Anyone watching lumber prices? Other than King of course. :)

HJ goes off the board tomorrow right near the price I predicted. Went out Friday at about -.04. This was one of the juiciest spreads last year. I got sales off in the mid 60's last summer and my last cover was last week near -.03.

There is no such thing as "easy". Unless perhaps you mean easy to understand?

What a load of BS. There are an infinite number of holding periods for any trader using fundamental, technical or quantitative analysis. There is no "one" period".

I agree. One could get the same results and the same p&l distribution by selling deep out of the money index puts, same difference. Make money every month for 5 years, lose it all in one day. This circus has been around for decades. There are tons of stupid ways to do this. Sell expensive...

I would say vol is higher with flat price but the relative shocks are greater with spreads. Of course that is where the opportunity is.

So here is what I would say regarding trading flat price vs spreads. I think in a way for complete newbies, flat price is easier in the sense that they "see" the risk. This forces them to trade smaller and also not to be shocked by it. For example, say they traded CL. They could look at a...

So Bone, here is what I would say regarding one just trading technicals wrt to energy spreads. There is a very complicated seasonality structure and hence complicated volatility structure to most energy markets. One HAS to understand this to trade that space. For example summer gasoline...

Also, I feel like I'm stating the obvious here but I'll say it anyway. NEVER leg a spread. EVER. The "spread" is the trade, not the legs. If you are going to leg something then just trade the most liquid leg by itself directionally since that is actually what you are doing.

Spreads in indices are simply pseudo interest rate spreads if you are talking about the same product. For example, in ES, the spread between march and june is the cost of borrowing X at time t to time T. The dividend component we'll say is exogenous and fixed. So there is not much utility in...

Bone, I got that same impression. I was going to respond with a long very technical post but then realized that it probably might be overkill. You said something that I think 98% of people on ET reading this thread will miss and don't understand. You should be able to describe your edge in...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fund-volatility-lawsuit/investor-files-lawsuit-over-u-s-ljm-fund-that-lost-most-of-its-value-idUSKBN1FT2XL

Here is the "dear investor letter" from Tony himself.

http://www.investmentlossattorney.com/finra-arbitration/ljm-preservation-growth-fund-investment-loss-recovery-options/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI_KOR382z2QIVzbrACh2zcggnEAAYAiAAEgJkGfD_BwE If you are have suffered losses in LJM Preservation and Growth Fund, you may be able to pursue recovery of your...

Thnx for posting. I was going to e-mail them for a copy. There is a treasure trove of info in those slides.

https://www.ft.com/content/d0dd673c-0c71-11e8-839d-41ca06376bf2 On the bright side, they will not be charging fees for redemptions.

Here is another "marketing" piece. This one highlights their strategy a bit more and talks about how "safe" the growth and preservation fund is. :)

I don't think it is at a lower cost though Marty. For example, at least with DUNN, they outsource their mutual fund to another firm who administers the fund. They still pay the 2/20 to the actual fund and on top of that charge extra fees. It's not trivial Marty. In the case of DUNN, I think...

This is one of their "marketing" pieces.

The "special sauce" is all marketing BS. A large majority of the fund space is simply harvesting risk premia and adding beta to it. Throw some fancy marketing on top of that and your kids get to go to really nice private schools and mom and dad get invited to nice cocktail parties.