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I read a research article a long time ago which concluded that the options at expiration move price but it was mere cents, hardly anything that you could trade on.

Does the pope buy options?

If you lose 80% of the time then you need to win 4 times as much as you lose (per win) in order to break even. Are ya feeling lucky big guy? :D Conversely, with a short straddle, you can lose more than 4x. The short answer? There are no free lunches for just showing up and placing a...

I would surmise that conversions and reversals affect share price because stock may be bought or sold, depending on which side the MM is on but I would guess that the effect is minimal. Yes, no, maybe?

The easy way to see this is to use an option pricing model. Answer available in well under a minute. If this is above your pay grade then you can do a quick guesstimation by looking at an option chain. Find a stock that is near a strike price (so deltas approximately equal) and where your...

Hey, don't blame me for being the market maker between you and the other fool who took the other side of your trade :D :p :D

Between the B/A spreads on two legs and 3 days of time decay, you're not likely to see much of a gain, if any on a 1.6% move in the underlying. As Ox3 suggested, post an example with real quotes. Modeling that would give an idea of P&L

For last year's expirations, 25% of the time, the SPY move up or down more than 90 cents, This year it's 72% As for accuracy, I am right 92% of the time and the remaining 27% of the time, I have no clue :D

I can't help you with that since it's above my pay grade. Just curious though, are you sure that your source of IV is correct? I surmise that you're talking about the trading behavior of IBKR rather than the broker itself. Though it has nothing to do with your question, in regard to IBKR...

Look at the delta of the $267 call then fudge it down by 10%. It will be close enough for civil service work :) If you prefer something more accurate, toss all of the option variables into an option pricing model, using a hypothetical $266.90 call

I wouldn't equate using a high delta Stock Replacement strategies with short term directional trading. ITM versus ATM or OTM involves trade offs. ITM has the spread issue and the potential to lose more if the stock drops. It has little theta decay if long term yet it profits immediately on...

You can preview the order: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/software/tws/twsguide.htm#usersguidebook/realtimeactivitymonitoring/checkmargin.htm?Highlight=margin

Maybe my sarcasm for the quality of "education" that the OptionGuide offers is being missed. What you have proposed is exactly what the long stock collar in their example entails. BUY the stock for $50, SELL the $60 call for $5 and use the $5 premium received to BUY the $50 put for $5. The...

Could you provide us with the Cliff Notes version? I'm not in the mood to listen to almost an hour and a half of You Tube to find out what his point is. And what kind of spreads would those be?

Yep, click on the link provided by julianantonio on the previous page and see it for yourself. I ain't making this sh*t up !!!:D :confused: :)

Though it's implied that one knows what to do with the call in a long stock collar, my description was sloppy so let me me dot the I's and cross the T's a bit better: So here's what the OptionsGuide" proposes: Buy a $50 stock that has a $60 call LEAP trading for $5 (WHICH YOU SELL) and buy a...

Costless collars are no big deal to find but finding a costless collar that has no risk is a thing to behold. So here's what the OptionsGuide" proposes: Buy a $50 stock that has a $60 call LEAP trading for $5 and buy a same expiration $50 for that $5. Voila! Can't lose position! Imagine...

Buying a straddle a few weeks before the EA has two advantages. (1) The increase in IV will offset some decay and (2) you might get some underlying price change and straddle gain. Being long a straddle through earnings is swimming upstream against the IV contraction and that makes no...

Near term options inflate before an earnings announcement but that does not mean that they are mis-priced. Where this gets interesting to me is when near term inflates far, far more than immediate far term, shifting the risk graph significantly. For example, if the R/R of an IC is normally...

There are several problems here. First, you can't sell an "out of the money option farther out" and close it by selling it again. So we start out wondering what your strategy is. Let's assumes that you meant that when the nearby option expires you'd BUY the farther out option it to close and...