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That "hump" is realized over time, not price. It does nothing for you in real time.

You keep saying this but it's absolutely not true. I've told this story several times about a guy at my old prop firm that sold teeny puts in the SPX 700 to 800 handles OTM. I got on the phone with him and warned him, that if we should have a sharp downside move and those puts went $5 or $10...

Let me know when you make that oil trade big fella.

So basically oil could go higher or lower from here. I'm heading straight to the bank!

Correct. So for example if AAPL confirmed it might mean that the overall market might trend lower over the next month but AAPL trades sideways. It shows that AAPL should hold up better than the overall market.

Tony, the textbook definition was two consecutive closes at >=9. The idea was not to get faked out by a single +10 print. I don't hold strictly to that. I generally look for that level to hold. In other words, look for constructive development i.e. NLs moving higher vs lower. And also...

It's junk oil though. Very heavy, very dirty. It trades at a huge discount to both WTI and Brent. It matters, but not as much as people think. I'm sure it's more psychological than anything else with prices where they are now.

It will have a large impact on the WTI/Brent spread since Venezuela produces a very heavy grade oil. It should affect WTI more than Brent. Iran on the other hand will likely affect Brent more than WTI. So both events have huge spread implications. I would argue the summer demand for Gasoline...

Yes, eventually inflation kills all bull markets. But we barely have any at the moment. We still need to get back to our historical avg. Eventually higher oil prices work their way into input costs and squeeze operating margins. This is a slow process and will take longer because supply...

Demand destruction takes a lot more time than people think. Cars are a lot more fuel efficient than they were 10 years ago. Most of the demand is coming from emerging market economies that have much higher growth rates than the US.

I've maintained that Brent will hit $85 this year and $100 next year. The market is so tight right now. It's almost scary how tight it is. Remember, the last time we saw geopolitical issues in 2012 and 2013 we were drowning in supply and we still had a $100 handle on oil.

You have to dig deeper. So going straight to the obvious competitors won't work today. Think outside the box. Software today makes it very easy for lazy people to get info that took us hours to find 15 years ago. You are going to have to be a much better detective than that today. Although...

If I was going to make my living solely from daytrading, I would automate. One of my partners did it using Python but R would work as well. The other alternative is to manually score a basket of say 50 diverse names that nobody watches (i.e. midcap names) with modest volume.

Here is what Eastern Warrior is trying to explain to you. Let's take your example. Say you want to buy XYZ at 25.75. You believe this is a great trade and it's certainly going to 35.00 in a few weeks after earnings. So you bid for it at 25.75 and your buddy does the same using his IB...

I've discussed this at length throughout the thread but I'll mention it again. The number lines provide an excellent tell that is often NOT in the charts. I would look for stocks that that have been dead and buried for the last 6 months that have NOT been confirmed and now are showing...

Sure, this is what I did a long time ago when I traded stocks actively intra-day. At the prop firm where I use to trade we use to focus on listed stocks and specifically mid cap stocks. Say MGM was due to report earnings today. That stock was going to be messy. One of my favorite stocks at...

There is a trick to this. The goal is to "find" the volatile stocks "before" they become volatile. Once a stock becomes volatile, it signals all the gamblers to run in and over trade it, hence the noise. You need to find a way to anticipate this before everyone else. Not saying it's easy...

Connecticut Hedge Fund Association. You sound like a world champion scrabble player. :) https://cthedge.site-ym.com/events/EventDetails.aspx?id=1062223

Are you a member of CHFA? I believe you have to be a member to attend.

I'm long SQ as a long term play.