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Yes. I'm guessing you are asking that, because the drop was followed by a 2020 spike? However, they are expecting productivity to continue to decline through 2023.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/10/31/productivity-down-employers-worried-recession/ "In the first half of 2022, productivity — the measure of how much output in goods and services an employee can produce in an hour — plunged by the sharpest rate on record going back to 1947...

This is not my prediction. He's going against the polling trends which have been showing a slight pickup in Republican support. However, I do wonder if the overturning of Roe v. Wade will make younger generations more likely to vote than they typically would in the midterms. If they do in a...

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that when it comes to importance, this isn't a top 10 issue for the vast majority of Americans.

I wonder what the sample size is of the 101 possible outcomes (0-100). If it's large enough you can see how accurate his probabilities have been. However, his data is based on the polls available and finding historical trends in polling I believe. The betting markets tend to be more accurate...

Inflation has been bipartisan. Only a few senators have been critical of MMT. The GOP is overblowing what the Democrats have done to oil/gas prices even though I agree that they aren’t helping them. The oil markets are too global for them to have had a massive impact thus far.

It's global, because the world has pretty much followed our lead of devaluing our currency. Don't get me wrong, Covid supply chain issues out of our control are contributing to some inflation, but this unprecedented explosion is the main driver here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

They will blame Covid supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine, but price gouging is by far the dumbest excuse they drum up.

So...if they divorce that doubles my chances!

Getting a representative sample is extremely difficult. I don't know anybody my age who even picks up the phone if they don't know the number that's calling them or aren't expecting a call.

Here is the video: He's going to be 80 years old in a couple of weeks. He's too old, at the very least losing some cognitive ability, and everybody knows it. I humbly suggest that everybody votes for Kevin Gilroy in the 2024 Democratic Primary instead.

The probability is based on polling data. As polls become more favorable to Republicans their odds of keeping the Senate increases.

Where are they getting the 67 senators to do that? There’s not a single Democratic Senator who’d support impeachment.

But Kevin McCarthy has lied to everybody, kissed Trump's ass, and completely emasculated himself all for this shining moment. C'mon, he deserves a shot, no?

I was in Canada for most of the month of August and did not get the impression that most Canadians are that interested in our politics. Obviously, the vast majority of Canadians live within 100 miles of the border, America is their biggest trading partner, we are still the largest economy in the...

I haven't seen a single thing about him to be honest lol.

I think having a Fed chairman who doesn't understand that simply increasing the money supply to deficit spend increases inflation is a major problem. Everybody on this current board was asleep at the wheel while Larry Summers nailed it. Let me remind everybody that Summers had to withdraw his...

He did re-nominate Chairman Powell along with strong bipartisan support: 80-19.

Larry Summers, who was early predicting inflation also agrees that this is a really stupid idea: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/former-obama-economic-advisor-questions-biden-proposed-windfall-profits-tax

She seems to be Kristi Noem 2.0.