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Thiel on Trade, Trump, Tech, bitcoin and other things

Its also very interesting his comments about taxes "There are also a couple things you could do to beat America at the national level. One would be to have lower capital gains taxes. It doesn't seem critical to have the lowest income taxes, because to take advantage of those, people have to...

Great article talking about why has Sillicon Valley been so sucessful http://www.paulgraham.com/america.html -US allows immigration (less so these days) -US is rich, so basic infrastructure is not an issue -American universities are better -You can fire people easily in the US (This gives the...

When it comes to uprounds, he's got a small sample to prove much (though I suspect he is onto something), but in terms of downrounds, I'm sure his sample is larger. Furthermore, VCs like him get the best piches. I'm told the best startups go to the best VCs for funding. So he's got adverse...

I suspect this is why he cautioned people not to underestimate bitcoin

Interesting thoughts from Peter Thiel What have you learned about Venture Capital now that you have been doing for so long? There are a lot of different lessons, one is that when something works, people often underestimate it and when things arent working, they underestimate how much in...

Here is an interesting rule of thumb from Jason Calacanis that can be applied to angel investing, icos, VC and other forms of bets "99 percent of people who write an idea on the back of napkin never do it. 95 percent of people who write a business plan never execute on it. 90 percent of people...

“It seems increasingly plausible that the economy is still well short of full employment,” said Andrew Levin, a Dartmouth College economics professor and former Fed adviser

Perhaps this is why the stock market jumped today (more so than the wage inflation figure missing expectations) "More than 800,000 Americans joined the labor force for the month, according to the report, many bypassing unemployment and jumping straight into jobs. It was the largest one-month...

You are right, these guys lever up (I dont). But both AQR and Bridgewater (IIRC), change that leverage based on different assesments. If they decided to lever down, the relavent market would be bonds, which is extremely liquid. Why so many people expect problems in the stock market as a result...

Risk parity concern a little overblown? The return of the Dalio portfolio doesn`t look all that bad so far this year That said, I wouldnt hang onto TLT and IEF in designing a portfolio for this year and next. I rather own short-term treasuries

If I become more active in investing in private equities and public risky stocks ("liquid VC") then the question is, would those investments be able to beat the stock indexes? Its well known thats its very hard to do, but I suspect some of that is the result of managers caving in to the need to...

This might actually be a little book idea for someone to write that I would love to buy. To list all of these real life little 'options' that someone might try out for free or even get paid to do it. Trying out acting is quite time consuming and it can take years or a decade to find out if it...

Looks like more recent data doesn't change the conclusion much Venture Capital seems quite oversaturated (in the US, that is) and it simply is returning capital to investors, after fees. However, my advantages are: -I pay no fees -My 'fund' (that is the capital that I will invest) is...

tks

If you got anything more recent, feel free to post

In a lot of ways, this already has happened. Since China banning crypto trading couldn't stop an exponential rise (from $5K to $20k), people are likely to dismiss further actions, unless they are absolutely monstrous (G-20 banning ownership of crypto)

Greenspan on using Fed policy to stop the Tech Bubble in the 90s I wonder if this same issue will happen with crypto. Governments can try to stop the bubble by taking certain actions, but when they fail (as its likely due the decentralization of crypto technologies) it will only embolden...

https://gigaom2.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/vc-enemy-is-us-report.pdf Good paper talking about the problems in the VC industry. For every $100 raised, VCs seem to take about $20-$25 in fees (mostly in the form of 2% a year commited capital management fees), this creates a significant return...

dude you said bitcoin would fall to a national crypto, and then you listed reasons why paypal has disvantanges that the same national crypto would have