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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    It might very well be. These underwriters love to sit out there with huge bids to support the stock and give the impression that the IPO was a big success. When they heard that the Swedes all wanted to dump, maybe they said "you guys are on your own". I'm just guessing here. As a day/swing short...
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    TSLA stock valuation

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-21/tesla-investors-are-said-to-approve-2-6-billion-award-for-musk Musk might get paid as much as $50B if his plans play out. Looks like he is running the most expensive niche hedge fund on the planet (12.5x premium to the capital being invested)
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I love Spotify, the service, but after reading a lot of the F1 filling, the business just looks downright awful. I will actually look to try to get a borrow allocation on IPO day to short (yes, its possible. I shorted TWTR on IPO day). It will be a day trade, maybe a swing trade, but this...
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    TSLA stock valuation

    Elon Musk is probably a genius and will pull off the impossible, many times over. However, how can the stockholders make money buying TSLA shares at current prices? He is running very capital intensive businesses (namely car manufacturing, solar panels and batteries). He already deployed a huge...
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    Spotify IPO, insider dump?

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000119312518063434/d494294df1.htm Very unusual IPO: -no underwriters -all shareholders but 2 (Tencent and a subsidiary of Tencent) are allowed to sell from day one -Company did not consult with shareholders on whether they intend to sell or when...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    All Spotify insiders except for 2 will be allowed to dump shares from day 1 " None of our Registered Shareholders or other existing shareholders have entered into contractual lock-up agreements or other contractual restrictions on transfer, except for TME and Tencent. In an underwritten...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    ironically, there are no underwriters in the Spotify IPO "There are no underwriters. Consequently, prior to the opening of trading on the NYSE, there will be no book building process and no price at which underwriters initially sold shares to the public to help inform efficient price discovery...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Only bull case I can see is to buy it as a takeover play. Perhaps Amazon would be interested in buying it (an Apple or Google buyout would probably be denied on anti-competition grounds) but they are thrift as shit, or maybe a big music studio. So maybe, thats the play that would work here, as a...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    "Rights holders also may attempt to take advantage of their market power to seek onerous financial terms from us, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. Even if we are able to secure rights to sound recordings from record labels and...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I was reading the Spotify F1 filling and these 2 sections stood out " The music industry has a high level of concentration, which means that one or a small number of entities may, on their own, take actions that adversely affect our business. For example, with respect to sound recordings, the...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    And Goldman "shitty deal" Sachs is?
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Buffett, Munger, Tudor Jones, Dalio all guys that are great at what they do but that are absolutely terrible at tech investing. They have missed pretty much every big tech trend over the last 30 years. Meanwhile Thiel, Andressen, Wilson and a few others were the ones that have consistently made...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Looks very interesting. Novogratz is also very interested in security tokens. They look like the future. No need to pay Goldman Sachs 5% fees or none of that nonsense, they will also trade with instant settlements (or 30 min settlements or something). Security tokens make me bullish on tZero...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Cryptokitties just got a $12M Series A round from two very respected VC firms, Andressen Horrowitz and UVC (Fred Wilson's firm). This suggests I was onto something when I said that crypto collectibles were an interesting investment (And Trump "crypto celebrity" asset went from $30k to $150K last...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    http://www.grahamanddoddsville.net/wordpress/Files/Gurus/Charlie%20Munger/Charlie%20Munger%20_%20Art%20of%20Stock%20Picking.pdf Good stuff from Munger. Summary: To be a good stock picker, you need not only intelligence but also discipline to wait for good opportunities and bet big when they come
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    Interesting Charlie Munger quote

    "For example, when we were in the textile business, which is a terrible commodity business, we were making low-end textiles which are a real commodity product. And one day, the people came to Warren and said, "They've invented a new loom that we think will do twice as much work as our old ones."...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Charlie Munger outlined the following in “The Art of Stockpicking”: “If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you’re not going to make much different than a 6% return—even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Here his a good example. Fred Wilson, a respected VC, calling the housing bottom in December of 2008 based on simple ideas like rent vs own analysis http://avc.com/2008/12/when-will-housi/ Back them, if you red the finance blogs (from typical NY influenced thinkers), it was mostly all about how...
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    anybody using GS Marcus to park cash?

    I rather park money at IB, buy UST bills 1 or 2 years out and then buy the stock when I find it. No need to wire cash around and lose valuable time
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    One of the ways that I'm starting to see this mistake is to understand what Sillicon Valley/SF is, which I'm seeing more and more by reading Paul Graham. Its essentially a vortex that sucks financial and intelectual capital from all over the United States, with the goal to change the world and...
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