Search results

Zuckerberg did his largest insider selling in a long-time before the whole scandal exploded. His defense was that it was under a 10b5-1 plan, but he is full of shit. These plans are so scammy is a joke...

If you look at what they did (negotiated a 'good deal' with the Record Labels and improved margins) it makes me think that there is an element of pump and dump into this. Its a very short-term deal (it will have to be renegotiated soon) and it happened before the IPO. Looks like they wanted to...

"Spotify could grow its revenue without increasing its operational costs. How, though, will it grow revenue if it cannot increase its spending on R&D and Sales & Marketing? The typical pattern for non-social network companies is for Sales & Marketing to grow less efficient over time, which means...

Stratechery is a great site I have been reading. Here, he breaks down Spotify's business issues https://stratechery.com/2018/lessons-from-spotify/ He shows that the traditional tech company scales this way Except that in the case of Spotify the marginal costs line is not flat, it tracks along...

TRUMP CALLS ON CONGRESS TO GIVE HIM LINE-ITEM VETO This could save the US from having to go through a fiscal crisis. But of course, Congress will only do it when its too late, when the market forces them to

Whats funny was that he was completely right that BRKB was a steal, year after year. All he had to do was load up on it and stop trying to be so smart. But his clients would have withdrawn and refused to pay fees just to be long BRK so he chased a bunch of stuff and shorted like an idiot

"Berkshire’s “hidden” earning power that our GAAP adjustments reveal, almost $10 billion more than GAAP net income, amounts to more than $170 billion in intrinsic value that an investor relying on reported GAAP profits at face value wouldn’t recognize. With an additional $3 billion (or more) in...

"Cash held by Berkshire across its segments and at the holding company totaled $109.3 billion at September 30. US T-bills were about 60% of the total. As recently as 18 months ago, cash yielded close to nothing. Now, cash yields average about 1.5%, producing over $1.6 billion in interest. Now...

https://d2zm3gcvr8kng7.cloudfront.net/media/documents/351455b6-d20f-4af6-8239-2ddd0fa213cf.pdf Tax cut impact on BRKB might be bigger than I thought. 2018 should be a good year for it as investors start to realize that Buffett hinted at this a few months back when he said 'the government is...

"The Naz in 2000 sported a P/E of 242 times at its March 10 peak, which worked out to an earnings yield of 0.41%! I’m being a little tongue in cheek with this measure. There were many more companies in 2000 devoid of profits, which inflated the number considerably. I remember that when excluding...

tag: Returns from 2000 bubble peak to today, bubble returns, nasdaq

Two things that I AM worried about is a US goverment debt crisis (ala UK in the 70s) https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-19/us-fiscal-policy-set-blow-us-economy-goldman and a recession. Perhaps it will be the recession that will lead to the debt crisis. And Trump made these risks worse with...

There is also the fact that he is compromised with the whole Russia thing, so he NEEDs to get reelected otherwise he will be in huge legal trouble (with no executive privilege, no pardon power, no influence on Justice Department etc, etc). As a result he just does not care about the short-term...

When Trump got elected I talked about how he would create a lot of equity volatility by using his negotiation tactics/game theory. I mentioned that I would not want to be short vol, that he would be doing a new kind of politics to achieve gains that historically werent achieved through normal...

With regards to all this trade war volatility, I'm on the camp that this wont matter all that much. This is a 'trade war with american characteristics'. They put out Steel and Aluminum tarrifs and then exempted like half of the world (I havent run the numbers but I believe they exempt more than...

Its also noticeable that Dropbox IPO at $8-9B valuation will be a downround from its 2014 $10B private round valuation. So perhaps this is an example of the "Thiel rule" that companies on downrounds and flat rounds underestimate how much in trouble they are in. They had 4 years to show something...

Dropbox is a tough one, I want to like it because they got good margins and clients seem pretty happy about it but they got tough competitors Furthermore on Google Play all of the above apps (except for iCloud which is not avaliable there) are rated 4.4 stars. In such a undifferentiated...

And as far as the Dropbox IPO goes, I'm not sure if I will invest. The insiders seem to be more aligned with IPO buyers but I'm not seeing much of a moat in this business. The are competing with the best tech companies around (Amazon, Google, Apple and Microsoft), while at the same time offering...

This is from the Dropbox IPO prospectus "Our executive officers, directors, and the holders of substantially all of our capital stock and securities convertible into or exchangeable for our capital stock have entered into market standoff agreements with us or have entered or will enter into...

And there is more, company is NOT looking to raise funds through this IPO, just to provide liquidity to insiders. I have never seen something like this before but I'm not a big IPO follower