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Its funny, almost every good/great stock investor bases their decisions looking at projected earnings/cashflows/revenues (even if they use the past as a guide to the future), etc but somehow a lot of people value the S&P500 based on past earnings/cashflows/revenues but dont think much about the...

$SPOT IPO opened at $165ish and now its trading at $152 and it might go lower. Just total dump by insiders, as called here in this journal. I got my borrows and managed to short at $163. Not a big position or anything but free money I will take it everytime

https://avc.com/2009/04/the-face-to-face-reference-check/

The point of my OP is that there is a lot of uncertainty with regards to those probabilities. If Soros Fund Management got them wrong by a lot, it means its not easy to get them right. BTC has limited risk and unlimited reward, very similar to an option contract. All that uncertainty increases...

MegaMillions tickets dont have their value set in a global liquid market. Plus the value of those tickets dont increase the more people know about those tickets. Plus those tickets cant be used for remittances

Warren Buffett's method is to just hold stocks no matter what and give up on timing. That's his version of HODLing. I'm not very comfortable with that approach because it leads to a lot of pain and big drawdowns. But I do think there might be some ways of decreasing drawdowns in recessions, but...

Good article. Yield curve inversions for market timing seems quite overrated. Powel is raising one of their flaws, that it can just downright fail to predict a recession because not all yield curve inversions are the same (10% short-term rates with long term rates at 7% and 8% inflation are one...

Look at past previous rallies, 5x is actually conservative. And the rest of your post is just the XYZ I mentioned in my OP. Lay 7-1 odds to people bet against your view

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-should-embrace-a-flattening-yield-curvefor-now-2018-03-27?link=sfmw_tw Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, looked at the previous five recessions and found that it took nearly a year for the curve to invert once...

Its possible that the bubble has burst and bitcoin will do nothing for years, its also possible that you will see another giant speculative wave and the bubble will continue. Nobody knows what will happen. However, its possible to know a few things: -If being bullish is right, the investor will...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-may-already-be-in-a-bear-market-heres-how-long-it-could-last-2018-03-27?mod=mw_share_twitter "To be sure, you might worry that we are due for a larger-than-average decline, given the length and gains of the bull market that began in March 2009. But...

Taleb got really lucky in 1987, not because the market crashed but because he was allowed to run this kind of strategy in a bank (OPM). He could have bled for years and gotten fired before he saw any kind of significant return. Usually banks like to be in the other side of these trades. And of...

Making money in markets is about antecipating what will happen based on the data, not being an after the fact genius

"In his excellent book "The Signal and the Noise," there's a section where Nate Silver covers Bayesian reasoning - essentially, a formula for estimating the probability of [X] based on some new piece of information, given the likelihood of [X] *prior* to receiving that new information. I know, I...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-south-korea-amend-trade-deal-seoul-exempt-from-steel-tariffs-1522032055 Trade war threats leading to more free trade behavior from South Korea...

China is such a dirty player, I never realized the extent and tactics that went behind its 'great firewall' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Websites_blocked_in_mainland_China A lot of internet/software companies have a lot of benefit from network effects/being first/having weak competitors etc...

ICO stats

Sleep and GDP per capita

"Put another way, there is little in the system to prevent an executive who foresees good news about the company from canceling a scheduled share sale, or an executive who foresees bad news from canceling a scheduled share purchase."