Search results

That's some data I got on Forward PEs. I extracted these figures a while back and run a regression on excel of the next 10 year returns. I used the forward yield and the CAPE yield as a predictor of the next 10 year returns. Funnly enough, the forward yield actually has a higher R2 than the...

When Gundlach says that if the yield on bonds go over 3.1% that will break stocks, I just dont get it. It makes no sense to me

Some smart investors are saying that the raising of the rates by the Fed, should lead stocks to fall, but I'm not seeing where their math works out. Current forward PEs for the S&P500 are 16x, vs an avg of 15 for the last 30 years or so. Meanwhile rates are still significantly lower than in the...

http://blog.samaltman.com/upside-risk

A problem with Dalio is that a lot of the time he is sort of a rock thrower. He will talk big picture, he will talk about risks but frequently he will not give the investment implication of those ideas. He wont say if he is buying more stocks, selling stocks, buying bonds or selling bonds. You...

"If you haven’t read about Thucydides’s Trap, and if you’re interested in how it might apply to US relations with China, I suggest Graham Allison’s “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?” In it, he explains that in the last 500 years there were 16 times when emerging...

"The U.S. demands came after Beijing offered to narrow the trade deficit by $50 billion, including by importing more liquefied natural gas, agricultural products, semiconductors and luxury goods, according to the person."...

Sure, but it seems to me that taxes are overly playing a role in this decision, especially for someone that is already financially free. Taxes and money should be way down the list in the main reasons to move, at least if the person wants to maximize personal satisfaction and happiness

Are you sure you want to decide where you want to live based on taxes? I mean, there are things in life that are more important than money. I rather pay 20% cap gains and be in a place I really like than to pay 0% and not be

Thank you for your words, it means a lot to me.

WHITE HOUSE SAYS "THERE COULD BE SOME FLUCTUATION" IN STOCK MARKETS AS RESULT OF CHINA TRADE DISPUTE short-term this is quite negative (and a mini-crash monday seems a possibility) but medium to long-term it shouldn't mean much. The White House is behaving like a parent who is letting an infant...

Investors that are freaking out about things might want to remember this Trump quote http://www.azquotes.com/quote/638583

If China wants to play a game of chicken with Trump, its hard to do if I`m right they are risk averse. Trump is borderline mentally ill, so he has an advantage on that game

Looks like China is already begging the EU for help

If Trump fails he doesnt get reelected, if Xi fails, the government can fall and he can be executed/imprisioned. I would think China leaders have to be a lot more risk averse because of that but I`m no China expert

Centerpoint Securities, they are the best broker for borrows

The US imports $500B a year from China, China imports about $130B a year from the US. Trump is playing a game of poker with China but he has a lot more chips to play with. China cant keep matching tarrifs because they simply dont have the numbers to keep going, meanwhile they will disrupt their...