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Frankly with all this QE talk I haven't been following europe much. But I'm still on the camp that can't see how this ends well. Buiter from Citi made a strong argument that the default incentive is at the highest when the country has a primary surplus(a fiscal surplus ex-interest payments) but...

Its interesting that on the panel about the Fed that Bernanke participated in the last few days he said that 'nominal GDP and the broad money aggregates says that we need to do more', implying that the decision has more to do boosting M(from m*v=p*y) than with lowering interest rates

I'm puzzled by some of the critics of QE and the Fed. The Fed is ALWAYS doing open market operations in the UST market and in the long-run is a net buyer of USTs(the balance sheet always grows). There is nothing new about QE, the scale is much larger now because the banking system is not lending...

Matter of fact he already has been wrong because iexpectations have risen quite a bit and this leads to an increase in velocity(Much like in the futures market when the deferred contract rises a lot that tends to push up the front contract, specially for storable commodities)

Now Hussman who seems to be in the QE wont create inflation camp is saying this Equally disturbing is that Bernanke apparently has no problem confusing fiscal policy with monetary policy when it suits him. In the same paper, Bernanke purports to explain why the central bank always has the...

Warsh is on the Fed Board and thus is a permanent voter in the FOMC

Kevin Warsh confirms the Fed doesn't give a fuck about the UR "Lower risk-free rates and higher equity prices—if sustained—could strengthen household and business balance sheets, and raise confidence in the strength of the economy. But if the recent weakness in the dollar, run-up in...

http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2010/11/05/what-we-should-learn-from-a-big-week-in-the-us-economy/#more-12471 I agree with this "3. The Fed has delivered QE2, and there are now two-way risks on Fed policy. In the past few weeks, the market has been gradually adjusting to the likely arrival...

I said that the QE didnt disrespect rights anymore than the hard money way. The truth is that the hard money way disrespect rights much more than the QE way because it puts the value of pieces of paper and electronic cash(and a small minority that will profit from it,, no baby killing or slavery...

Now, maybe some people disagree with QE on technical grounds(As I said I have no problem debating it on that level) so they would disagree with my assumptions(50% NGDP decline) but thats the assumption I'm making in order to say QE is right course to take from philosophical perspective If I...

If I understand you, you think QE is immoral because 'it would not be morally acceptable to institute a 1 year slave labour policy to restore national GDP, and similarly it is not acceptable to institute a 3 year inflationary impoverishment and theft policy to do the same thing.' Lets say a...

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/11/04/how-qe-works/ Salmon describes QE. He does a good job, unfortunately his conclusion is off the mark "In English, what that means is that the New York Fed has a direct line to the biggest banks in the world (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley...

Thats where Hatzius model might fail, perhaps he gives too much weight to the UR or GDP. I believe the Fed will be working with their model of 'how much inflation there is, what is our forecast(that takes into account the money supply and velocity) and what is the market forecast(iexpectations)'...

How do I balance that view with the other view that I have that the Fed might not ever exit their balance sheet? Well, its going to depend on how much QE they do. If they stop at QE2(Which I dont believe is enough given that future likely declines in M2) and never remove IOR I dont believe...

Hatzius raises the possibility of not rate hike till 2015 or maybe later http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-qe2-will-continue-2012-will-be-over-2-trillion-models-do-not-see-rate-hike-until-201 I dont believe this is going to happen unless there is some kind of change in the attitude...

As I said I dont believe there are a lot of things that are worth a 50% decline in NGDP(In any reasonable ethics code). Its not like I'm saying we need to kill jews to prevent a depression. I can accept an argument against QE on technical grounds but not on philosophical grounds because in...

Well I'm not a libertarian, as I said I dont like to put labels on myself. I dont find them useful at all. As far as QE goes its a policy choice so it doesnt affect the argument I made(Then the government ought be in control of monetary policy, the choices and how they go about surely but can...

My residual fed futures position is quite small at this point and upside potential is limited. I also trimmed a bit of gold and silver during the rally(Plus I had cut gold by 50% a while back). At this point I have no big bets, have a long in GGP(Which is out of BK, I will probably sell...

I suspect this has to do with iexpectations again, they are back to the range the Fed wants it to be so he is trying to anchor them there by telling people that QE1 has 'little' effect on the money supply and did not cause high inflation. He is conveniently expanding his definition of the word...

I'm curious about Bernanke's definition of the word 'little'. He uses that on the Wapo op-ed saying QE1 had little effect on the broad money supply. Bank credit has shrunk by almost $700b, QE1 was $1.7T with $1T in excess reserves, $700b went out to circulate in the economy as M1 M2 M3...