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One good thing about this period where fed futures were quite high and I stayed underweight was that it cleared my head and enabled me to look at the position with less biases. I now realize that the Fed could tighten earlier than I thought. I was thinking the calls from some hawks for the Fed...

The thing with these changes is that while usually its hard to be a good short-term market timer it should be even harder if there is a bull market going on and you want to fade it, particularly when we are talking about assets with long-term risk premiums If we consider the premium as a...

I believe its a matter of how good of a short-term trader one is. When someone has strong evidence that a correction might be coming he will have to hedge out by either decreasing sizing or by buying options I made a mistake this year by decreasing on gold before the QE rally, I thought it was...

Are you talking about assassination?Because Obama would veto anything that would stop the fed from easing further, the man is running for reelection

Its funny, I emailed some people that are quite knowledgeable about the Fed(some worked there) yet no one seems to understand the foreclosure issue and how it affects M2 To me this is huge, its quite possible the difference between having or not QE3+. If the effects of foreclosures are(most...

I'd put close to 100% of my networth there. Can't see anything better to put on given these numbers. As that bull rode on I would have to decrease that % as the expectation is looking less attractive

Its called averaging in. I was supposed to have the full position the whole time but have been sizing in according to short-term extremisms. So far it has outperformed

I never studied the asian crisis deeply so I can't comment on it except I'd be shocked if the govermnent allowed M2(or whatever is their broad money supply measure) collapse and massive deflation to take place. As far as I know their currencies collapsed and they had quite a bit of inflation...

Greenspan has been calling for higher capital requirements, I believe Bernanke is as well I dont subscribe to the idea that they can prevent recessions but that they can prevent depressions(depending how one defines it)

Bought a bit of Fed Futures dec 2011 here, still not fully back to the old position size

If the government lies about inflation and has an incentive to debase(either through fiat issuance or 'phony' gold standards) then real rates were probably bellow the 'right level' for a lot of the history of the US. I'm wondering where is the 'mal' part of malinvestment

My point is that people still made very productive investments regardless of the so called 'malinvestment'(I'm not claiming it exists but if it does), it looks like capitalists are smarter than the theorists think

The US has had the highest growth in productivity over the last 200 years that the world has ever seen(And living standards) even though it never had the ideal gold standard and in fact had a fiat standard for about half of that period. Now, maybe you can claim that without 'malinvesment' it...

"Is this the Irish trigger? November 11, 2010 7:01pmby Emma Saunders | Share Rumour has it that certain European investors are no longer willing to provide Irish banks with overnight funding. If true, this could trigger the much-discussed bail-out (for it’s unlikely to end in default). A...

Sold GGP after they delivered the spinoff(HHC, howard hughes company or something). small profit there

QE trade unwinding. Fed futures continue to go down, I will keep watching for now

FOMC to get a bit more hawkish next year even though Hoenig departs http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/11/09/399111/fomc-composition-and-future-monetary-policy/

Fed Futures coming back to earth. I might buy some if the decline continues

I was referring to US QE1, I do believe that it prevented the start of a 1930's scenario since M2 would have collapsed by 7-8% without it(in the 30's the decline was around 10% a year but the debt levels were smaller) I made that case before, its about preventing debt deflation and downward...

Perhaps I shouldn't have used the word rights. Yet there is something wrong if a government willingly chooses a path that would lower net standards of living, a violation of trust maybe a better term