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The extend and pretend policy might actually work(to prevent defaults). They are essentially guaranteeing the liquidity of any country for any length of time, meanwhile these countries are doing austerity which should result in a fiscal surplus, at that point the country can keep going without a...

Using archive.org there is not a single reference to even 'madoff securities' or 'madoff' prior to the discovery, this is clearly not complete

I'm curious, is there a way to know what would have been the results of typing 'madoff ponzi' on goggle before he was found out?(essentially pre-late 2008 results)

Actually there is no Trichet quote on that, I made a mistake, but I'd say this is a serious possibility now given that Ireland gotten more time and Greek has their extension. I can't possibly see them calling those loans anyway

Its interesting that it appears the the EU bailout fund seems to be open to extending maturities into infinity(at least thats what Trichet was quoted saying), if thats the case then its could be that it's not really a loan but more like a fiscal transfer due the net present value of the loan...

They lie sometimes because telling the truth creates self-fulfilling prophecies. Furthermore maybe its not a lie given that it exists maybe small chance they are correct(if it was 100%, markets would have priced that in), telling the truth would wipe that out

correction: I meant sell order

As I understand Iceland used capital controls, a quite anti-free market measure, in order to make sure there wasn't a massive run on deposits and collapse of the money supply

I dont see how this would strengthen the EUR, specially because some of this people will prefer gold and USD instead of EURs. The ones that keep their euros wont have an positive impact in the fx(furthermore they will still be forced sellers of those euros once the central bank offers the new...

Yeah, getting out of the EUR resembles a massive sell other by citizens and the government so its another factor. But as I said the EUR was strong against everything even the CHF

Switzerland by being a haven for capital has a currency that is permanently overvalued on a PPP basis, the EU crisis might lead the EUR to be permanently undervalued on a PPP basis by being hell for capital. At least that is my theory/speculation. Its a bad thing that I was caught on the wrong...

One thing I dont quite understand about the EUR is why it decoupled from the rising CDSs and debt problems over the past few months then all the sudden came back. Even netting out USD and QE issues the EUR was strong(against JPY and CHF for instance) It looks like it might recouple but its...

"EU president Herman Van Rompuy denied that Lisbon needs a lifeline, insisting that Portugal's banks are well capitalised and do not face property losses. "Portugal does not need any help – it is in a very different situation to Ireland," he said." Bottom line is that Portugal and Spain are...

Debaser, I wasn't trading at that time yet

Front end took off here, I didnt had 100% of the position in(due some concerns) but had 75%, decent enough. I might take a profit if it goes crazy again

Carter and Bush senior lost their elections partly due the bad economy(One could argue Mccain as well). It does look like a coinflip at this point

This is concerning because with QE2 the monthly purchases number will go up, some of that will find its way outside the Fed deposit system and the growth should pick up more. If that happens M2 growth could become uncomfortably high, but it would be a bit illusory because there is the future...

M2 growth is picking up, the 3m and 6m series are quite around the Fed's desired range(I'm speculating here), maybe even a bit above http://federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/ This poses a threat to the 'no rate hike for eternity' view

From Rosenberg: "State and local governments in the U.S. are in a state of disarray and the need to cut spending to close massive fiscal gaps are simply acute. As a result, companies that sell into this part of the economy — the lower levels of government represent 13% of the economy, which is...

This is not to say that the Fed would exit and hike with 9% UR, but the level should be quite higher than previous cycles. Depending where iexpectations and inflation are they could do it with the UR lower than 8%