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EFF might drop even more if UST unwinds the SFP and floods banks with $200b more excess reserves "Possible Market Disruptions Lie Ahead Adoption of the tax bill will likely lead to a slightly earlier-than-anticipated need to hike the debt ceiling. This appears to be setting up as a real...

Does anyone know why the ES futures curve has changed? http://www.zerohedge.com/article/es-futures-curve-hits-whopping-10- point-6-month-backwardation

In theory both Richard Fisher and Plosser are supposed to dissent every meeting next year but there is this unwritten rule that only 1 dissent can happen per meeting so I'm don't know what will happen

The calls are the best, if there was Fed futures options with the liquidity of eurodollars I would have probably risked retarded amounts of money and made more than I did. I`m just not comfortable going back to them after the EU thing started to unravel

"The Federal Reserve Board announced on Friday that a live webcast of its December 16 open meeting will be available on the Board's website. At the meeting, which is scheduled to begin at 2:30 p.m. EST, the Board will discuss proposed rules governing debit card interchange fees and routing. This...

Effective fed funds reaches 0.16% http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm And the QE program still has a long way to go. 10bps seem possible

Anyone know a few?

Its interesting that by and large banks are still not on net lending credit to the economy http://federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/ The pop on M2 seems to have come from their purchases of Securities(line 2), mostly treasuries and agencies during September and October. Now that the...

I can understand inflation expectations getting out of line and that forcing the Fed`s hand but in my mind they would respond by 1st prolonging the period which they are buying assets and 2nd decreasing the amount not by raising rates(Maybe both at the same time if markets are really crazy)...

I went long pretty heavily in the Fed futures today, doubled my position. On a double .25 hike scenario I`m going to lose about about 20% of my networth. If I`m correct I make 14%(This uses a conservative estimate of how much QE2 will drive down the effective fed funds rate, could be more, they...

You are using a different definition of M2

Nope, sorry, you are wrong. If I own $1m in USTs and sell to BAC, then they will use their bank reserves which then turned over to me will be called a bank deposit(checking account money), which gets added to the M2 number. Those things are true by definition

Funny, President Lula just came out defending Assange and Wikileaks. I'm not sure he would do that if he knew fully the implications of that position

The banks dont need to loan money, if they purchase assets like USTs, GSEs MBSs from non-banks M2 rises. And if M2 is not money, I dont know what is, those mostly can be exchanged for physical cash with very little lags

would you call increasing M2 printing money

Bernanke didn't lie, he 'effectively' lied

A thought provoking blog post http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=8063

I bid $1

I have no idea in what world bernanke is in when he says he is not printing money. M2 growth latetly has been quite robust, this will get even stronger as the $600b of assets are purchased. Fed futures have taken a beating in the last 2 days, I'm thinking of going all-in on them. They were...

I suspect this law is not enforced at all except if there are political motivations