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Sold a bit more of FF so far I cut about 50% of my position. I'm taking of advantage of the rally because its always emotionally harder to sell on a decline. I will hold this defensive 50% position, till it becomes clear what is going to happen

Intrade has contracts on the likelyhood of government falling on the middle east http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/# Its not pretty, I dont know why they dont have Saudi Arabia, or maybe they do I just cant find it

El-Erian agrees, stagflation means tighter money than otherwise. I might liquidate a lot of my position tomorrow to take advantage of the rally. If I miss out on profits so be it http://www.cnbc.com/id/41741150

In the end I believe the fed succeeds in creating inflation, I explained a few times, the deflation is unbeatable argument I believe is wrong, because QEs can affect M2 and iexpectations(which soared almost 1% after QE2). Scott Summer makes a good point that the BOJ acts as if they were...

Oil is adding $9 in 2 days and the rates markets seem quite comfortable with that

Its interesting, Fed futures and iexpectations dont seem to be worried about the middle east situation and the potential stagflation at all. I'm not sure this will continue if oil keeps climbing

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703439504576116613784785344.html

El-Erian Says Political Unrest Adds Stagflationary Winds http://noir.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=El-Erian%20Says%20Political%20Unrest%20Adds%20Stagflationary%20Winds&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vMT_XWuU0tuc.asf I agree with this, given that the stagflation probability has...

Its interesting the information age is leading to increased correlation of political turmoil in different countries. This backs the thesis/trade the volatility ought be bought on dips for the next years but maybe there are better trades

Yes, the students are correct, its far more likely you will be scammed by a random street person than they will hand you money. They did the probable correct play

I'm not so sure about this point, not just they make more money they also have a lower unemployment rate PLUS I see all the time companies ASKING for a graduate degree in order for someone to apply for a job. That is, if you dont have one, they almost certainly will stop reading your resume...

The reason I mention this is because I never went to college, till this year. I enrolled in a financial management course in a online college course(Only 2 years). Not that I plan on getting a job anytime soon, this is mostly insurance. In case one day I can't generate any alpha from the markets...

Interesting study on colleges http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/21/revisiting-the-value-of-elite-colleges/#more-100956 http://www.irs.princeton.edu/pubs/pdfs/563.pdf They find that which you college you go to is irrelevant as far as your lifetime earnings are concerned, its your...

I sold a bit of my position, little less than 1/3

Interesting Fed research http://blogs.ft.com/money-supply/2011/02/21/hometown-bias-on-the-fomc/ Pretty much shows what it was known already, non-voting presidents like to yap away but return to normal once when they have a vote. The note that they tend to speak more hawkish when the data on...

I'm thinking of selling almost 50% of my large Fed Futures bet here, 1st because they rallied a lot quickly, they are on the upper range of where they usually trade at, 2nd because I"m not quite sure the oil/lybia situation is quite supportive of my trade. It could create some kind of...

Front end is having a monster day, I'm not quite sure why. It appears the the markets were expecting much worse inflation numbers

Am I the only one who finds it ironic he was on with a guy named Keating

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajFUFvIi3Bm8

Bernanke interview with FCIC http://c0181567.cdn1.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/FCIC%20Interview%20with%20Ben%20Bernanke,%20Federal%20Reserve.pdf