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I'm preparing for the worst. I'm switching a part of my currencies from my FX hedge basket from AUD, NZD, CAD(Synthetic ways to hedge the fact that my costs are in Brazilian Real and my assets in USD) to CHF and JPY

Its interesting how people can be smart sometimes, yesterday that knowledge gave me an edge for a possible trade but it took only 1 day to become front page in the NYTs

"If the American analysis is accurate and emergency crews at the plant have been unable to keep the spent fuel at that inoperative reactor properly cooled — it needs to remain covered with water at all times — radiation levels could make it difficult not only to fix the problem at reactor...

It appears the workers cannot perform their functions after a certain level of disruptions http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/16/world/asia/16workers.html?_r=1&pagewanted=1 http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/17/world/asia/17nuclear.html?pagewanted=1&ref=business “We believe that radiation...

I believe the withholding of dividends is 30%, less if there is a tax treaty between the country and the US

Don't tell this to the japanese

Whitney Tilson Explains LECG Position (XPRT) http://www.marketfolly.com/2011/03/whitney-tilson-explains-lecg-position.html I like very much Tilson's explanation for his loss here. I never read this kind of letter/thinking from other hedge fund managers

2008 commodity spike might not have had an speculative component after all http://www.businessinsider.com/proof-that-the-rise-in-commodities-has-been-based-in-fundamentals-2011-3

In other words, either everything is going to be ok(they control the units) or things will get really bad(a few units meltdown). If that speculation is true, a middle scenario doesn't seem likely

Here's what is dangerous about the Japanese situation according to a WSJ graph, there are 6 nuclear plants units all next to each other, so if one of them blows up the radiation levels will be so high that perhaps work on the other units will not be able to be done(I'm not sure this is correct...

"The recent increases in the prices of energy and other commodities are currently putting upward pressure on inflation. The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations" Note the Fed doesn't mention...

Sold some fed futures, I hold now 27% of my original position. I might buy back the 2012 ones if they drop from here

Point is: GEICO makes a living picking nickels in front of a steamroller. Its a matter of being a good and fast nickel picker and not get greedy

Fed futures have been up strongly as a result of the Japanese disaster(It appears that 'minute' levels of radition were found in Tokyo and that is spooking the crap out of people) I'm seriously considering cutting back even more and there is little upside left(specially when you adjust for...

Hussman http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110314.htm Says stocks and some commodities are in some kind of bubble. I'm currently defensive on both assets, hold very little of each(except gold and silver which are part of my FX hedge basket)

I agree with this to some extent, I just dont agree its a net positive. I can't possibly imagine the markets rallying if 50% of the US population died on a super katrina, unless its some kind of hyperinflation bet

Globalization was smaller back then, furthermore US markets tend to rise 10% a year, you need to know what would have happened without the bombing. My point is if Katrina were 20x as big as it was, the market obviously would not have risen, if you dont agree, make it 500x

Sure but still this assumes they are a net positive over the long-run, there is no such thing as ricardian equivalence, there is some kind of free lunch in having productive capacity destroyed etc

I was talking about your flawled view that natural disasters and the destruction they bring are supposed to be good for stock markets. Try Reductio ad absurdum

Wait till the Nikkei opens, your argument is flawled