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Lockhart even though he is a Fed president and is out of the fomc is not joining hawkish camp, says its not time to tighten policy and won't speculate on end year hikes

John Hussman has criticized the traditional phillips curve argument that the UR will hold down prices http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110404.htm He says "The most prominent version of this is the "expectations augmented" Phillips Curve, which looks at the graph above as a whole set of...

Bullard wants to end QE2 at the next meeting http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/04/05/feds-bullard-to-push-for-curtailing-qe2-at-april-meeting/ "We’d be pulling back just a little bit from where we said we were going to be based on economic developments. Then we would be on pause for a...

The Fed talks tough on inflation which sends fed futures and USTs down, which makes it more likely they will go up because it means the Fed wont have to move. Looks like the market doesn't understand this kind of bluffing by the Fed

Vincent Reinhart "Fed is running open mouth operations" By Luca Di Leo Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES STONE MOUNTAIN, Georgia (Dow Jones)--The Federal Reserve's tough talk on inflation should be seen as a way to keep prices in check without having to tighten monetary policy, a former senior...

Using really conservative numbers I get a Kelly of 15% http://www.system-bet.com/pages/kelly/ I'm using the assumptions 60% chance of +8% 20% -2% 20% -10% This works out to odds of 1.9-1, assuming 1% in commissions. Yes, maybe I'm betting a really big there(Although this numbers are...

Steinhardt http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000014541 Rips buffett, is betting against the 2y UST

The greatest achievement of Lula was not sticking to his campaign promises

A very long piece for those who want to understand better Brazil's economy and politics http://www.lrb.co.uk/v33/n07/perry-anderson/lulas-brazil In my view much of the attributed 'wisdom' of lula is just a by product of the economic boom, the article itself mentions that most of the poverty...

ECB hikes could be the difference between life and death to EU periphery http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/04/05/536341/greek-and-irish-interest-rate-stress-tests/

EFF averaged 9bps yesterday wow, any idea on where the market will trade today at Martin?

Why?Are you using some kind of mathematical criteria like kelly criterion or something like that? To me, its a matter of being comfortable with the drawdowns this position sizing will lead to and being far away from the Optimal F and kelly to make sure you dont go bust, if I run my numbers...

It seems to me that the likelihood of 2 hikes is pretty low so the trade has both good expectation and high chance to pay off(or at least a small loss on 1 hike). But its hard to quantify a risk with fed futures, in theory its 100% of my account because they could drop to 0 tomorrow

It seems that the markets expect the new EFF to be 0.11%, at least for right now with the SFP shutdown

I must have missed this, what is the FDIC news?

You are correct in most trades. In the Fed futures the contract will expire and get cash settled at an specific date so thats why I like it, the market can't have delusions for too long and if I'm correct I will cash as a long I dont let the swings scare me out. But in a lot of other ones I...

Fed futures already reversed all of the Kocherlakota sell-off. GS Hatzius now seem to be backing out of his call for a Fed hike in 2013 Q1

OP, here's a complete list of people who have succeeded with your current mindset:

I saw the ECRI guy on CNBC and was wondering about this stuff, thanks for posting. I'm skeptical about their claims that market prices not being good as them, after all they are making a living selling their stuff rather than beating the markets but I will keep an eye on their inflation indicator

Dudley: The central banker also cautioned markets not to read too much into what some perceive as discordant rhetoric coming out of central bankers. "It's important to not overstate the degree of disagreement," Dudley said. "I don't think the disagreement is as deep as some people are...