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Yellen with her dovish speech today has pretty much guaranteed 'extended period' language is likely to stay out there for quite a while. I'd argue at least 2 more meetings, which makes my trade an almost lock unless the economy takes off to the upside more than expected by private and Fed...

John Hussman speculates that a rise in interest rates could be potentially highly inflationary as it could decrease demand for cash(and increase demand for USTs) http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110411.htm I have some problems with his analysis -First he notes UST bills have been...

I'm not sure I agree. In order to get out of your home currency and that a FX exposure you need some kind of trading insight that tells you its positive expectation to do that. If you are good at having those insights than you could have shorted USD/Anything and made that money. I could argue...

What I care about is one thing, which portfolio would generate more money over the last 200 years, the one with precious metals or a 50/50 stock-bond mix. Are you saying yours outperform on a absolute basis?I'm understand the lower volatility and risk adjusted stuff but my risk preferences call...

Look at the brazilian real, I losing money on my non BZF, precious metals exposure. Even though I'm hedged with a basket of currencies(many of them commodity currencies) yet the real continues to climb against them. My luck is that I have some of my costs in USD(I import a lot) plus I plan to do...

I basically want to sell the stock once the SPX reaches a certain level, but the limit and stop orders of IB won't let me choose a different underlying for the condition

I'm not sure about having 25% of assets in precious metals, IIRC their expected long-term real return is 0%. For the next 10 years, yes, but that is more like a macro bet. For the long-run I'd rather own assets that have some kind of premia

downside is 6.5bps(1 hike), upside is almost 30bps(could be more if the EFF of right now is sustainable) The conservative numbers give a kelly of 15%, the more realistic numbers give a kelly of 77% What are the chances of 2 hikes within 10 months given extended period language(That is a done...

Problem is going to Atlantic city carrying 175K in cash, you risk getting jailed at the airport

I must have missed the fact that oil fields existed on Liberty Street

It seems to me that post crisis CBs tend to be cautious when implementing the exit strategy(Due fears of 1937). Greenspan in his book talked about asking the FOMC in 94 to make the first hike only .25 to not scare the markets. To it seems to me that the downside of being long Fed futures seem...

Trichet said "Monitor very closely" This means he is not supposed to hike next meeting http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/04/06/when-will-ecb-raise-rates-next-heres-code-to-watch/

I'm thinking more from the perspective of myself and other traders that want to park some cash they are not using to actively trade. You have the choice of putting in some hedge fund charging 2/20 or in a diversified mix of assets, it seems that its quite likely the latter is better

Very interesting speech on iexpectations http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2011/pot110330.html "When we probed survey respondents about their understanding of changes to “prices in general” (the Michigan Survey question), we found that a significant fraction believed we were...

Corn farmers now storing corn to speculate in prices http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/53ff8bc8-6070-11e0-9fcb-00144feab49a.html#axzz1IpTQvEXU This reminds me of the oil tankers holding on oil to sell later during the $147 oil climb craze

Hedge funds can't beat a basic ETF retail strategy http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-im-not-investing-in-hedge-funds-2011-04-06?pagenumber=1

Well, they meet monthly so this would be less than a hike per meeting, which is sorta my point that central bankers from crises countries will be slow and gradual

Weren't they saying that a hike would not mean they would go on a campaign or something like that?

Thanks for the feedback. I definitely wouldn't trade a system with this kind of position sizing since as you point out the drawdowns would reach levels its hard for any sane human to handle, I'm making an exception because I have a high confidence on this trade. Most of the time I'm making small...

Increased my position on BRKB(4% of NW), I'm making a bet that Tilson is correct that the intrinsic value of the company is quite higher than the market thinks(He believes is might be as much as 48%, there is a presentation out there on the web). Sokolgate has gave a discount on the shares, I...