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The guy from calculated risk summarized his Fed views "3) Timeline for Fed tightening It appears QE2 will end in June as scheduled with no tapering of purchases. It also appears the Fed will continue to reinvestment maturing securities - at least for a couple of months following the end of...

Simply comical weekly letter of Hussman this week. He engages in fear mongering for most of it then at the end presents the actual realistic scenario which puts all his 16 cents theory in the garbage can http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110425.htm "As a final note, the Fed does have an...

Aren't you afraid of a 2008 or 1974 scenario though?Its something that I think about a lot when I'm long a bull market, sometimes cutting the position down to buy back later might be a good idea. Its very tricky to do it but the alternative is also hard to handle(50% or so collapses in your asset)

What does he bases his QE3 forecast on?At this point if the economic forecasts out there are correct there is little chance of QE3, unless M2 plunges

This could be true yet it still be positive expectation to be long, its a matter to how much it rises compared to how much it falls

Guess you will have to join the military if you want to play poker :p

The US government is saying they will cooperate with the pokersites to get the players money back. It looks like my cash is safe

Here's an a possible place to park some trading cash while still being able to borrow against it http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pimco-launches-etf-replicating-its-flagship-total-return-fund If they launch it and I like the ETF terms I will hold a certain % of my liquid networth there

Exactly, having a few millions voters pissed at the Obama appointees at the DOJ with the 2012 election coming up might have flipped their decision

As part of the indictment that was the result of violations of the law by distribution of gambling proceeds the DOJ decides to promote a massive distribution of gambling proceeds

Interestingly enough the Brazilian real is lagging the currency rally

I expect US citizens to have to take some kind of haircut on their money. The poker wizards with hundreds of thousands or even millions online are out of luck

I have a little less than 10% of my networth stuck on pokerstars as a result of the US government moves to crackdown online poker. I suspect I won't lose anything because I plan to get the cash out before pokerstars faces any kind of bankruptcy risk(IF they face that) but still its making me...

The USD might be the perfect currency for my own portfolio actually. That is because if the USD were to tumble from here its likely due easy money from the Fed which means I necessarily will be cleaning up on the Fed futures side. Over the past few months it was exactly what happened

The EUR tanking 1.5% even after the US debt news might be just the signal that the currency still stop defying gravity and will trend lower from here. I will monitor 'very closely' the developments there to see if I will add to shorts

US yield curve steepening like crazy. I might be even forced to take profits on my Fed futures trade

Hatzius cuts 2011 GDP forecast from 4% to 2.25% :p http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jan-hatzius-friday-night-bomb-we-are-downgrading-our-real-gdp-growth-estimate-1%C2%BE-2%C2%BD

This ties directly to the discussion we were having about the optimum position sizing. I dont think there is nothing bad or good about leverage per se, its simply a tool that enables you to reach the amount of drawdowns/returns you are looking for If you use leverage but stay away from the...

Looks like the FBI closed a bunch of pokersites and is trying to get the owners to jail. Perfect, now the games will get even harder. It will be a bunch of europeans and russians trying to take the money from the few suckers that are left. I'm glad I'm getting a college degree, macro trading...

Roubini lays out China's bear case http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/roubini37/English