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I believe this guy is incorrect here http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05/31/first-rate-hike-in-2013/ The fed has acted 'weird' with regards to the UR in this cycle. They didn't do anything about it in 2010(before QE2) even though the UR was at a peak and their own forecasts said it was...

Rogoff is a smart man, he is aware of the differences. He was calling for the euro to massively underperform this year on bloomberg. I'm assuming his data got him to believe on that

The pig turmoil probably wasn't affecting the EUR much given that capital was fleeing the pigs to go to germany or france. But if Greece defaults and that hits the german/french banks then the option is not so great anymore

I'm using Rogoff as a guide here his data indicates the currency is supposed to fall a lot

I'm short against the CHF JPY and USD in order of size respectively

I'm considering increasing my EUR shorts significantly It seems that are 3 main possibilities of how the EU drama plays out -1. Fiscal transfers to Pigs(flat out giving money or 'value') by cutting rates on existing official loans, extending the maturities or cutting the principal. This...

Shouldn't the price of a stock that is set by insiders be more reliable than the price set by the market? http://networkeffect.allthingsd.com/20110519/secondmarket-unseals-linkedin-pricing-now-that-its-public/?mod=ATD_skybox

OP, the 1.3% rate IB charges is only relevant if you plan to borrow. I'm not sure why would do that. Most banks and MM funds are paying less than 1.3% on your cash so might as well pay cash for the stocks instead of borrowing If you plan to have exposure higher than 100% I'd highly recommend...

I'd agree with you totally if we are talking about AFTER he admitted sex(claiming it was consensual) or if the DNA showed something. But if all it takes is some woman showing up at NYPD for someone to go to jail then the system is fucked up because women can be extremely dishonest when they are...

But one innocent person in jail is such a bad thing that it outweighs lots of criminals out. Most people would agree with that(I dont think anyone would be pleased with a 1-1 ratio, probably not even a 5-1 ratio) The bruises or scratches thing could be an indicator but they are highly...

US legal system seems to be a total mess. It looks like the DOJ intervened in the Nasdaq bid for the NYSE, threatened to sue claiming it would hurt competition and consumers, funny thing is, they would probably win. A bunch of people who studied law proclaim they are experts in something that...

Yeah but still. I think the bail was something like $1m, so if an angry woman decides to lie its either $1m or jail for weeks, scary stuff

Greek scenarios http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/greecescenarios.jpg It appears that the restructuring talk is being overhyped a bit. The 'restructuring' looks like will happen in the bailout debt not market debt, this is essentially the 'fiscal transfers' scenario I...

The most curious fact about the DSK scandal to me is the decision to jail him without bail even though they did not had any evidence(other than 1 witness) This is scary, all it takes for someone to lose their freedom for quite some time is 1 angry woman willing to lie. Not saying this is the...

Shorted a bit more of EUR against USD

I don't want to celebrate too early but it looks like the fed futures trade will be a winner. I can't really see Fed going anywhere by Jan 2011 after what is going on with commodities and iexpectations. I dont want to push this trade again as I believe Hatzius is wrong Fed will be on hold for...

Kocherlakota: extended period means 2 to 4 meetings http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=ahHdeslXwrtg

Roubini greek debt table http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2011/05/roubinigreekrestructuring.jpg

Had to leave the trading day earlier but it looks like commodities were decimated. I need to be ready to step in and buy at some point

BOEHNER SAYS NO DEBT CEILING HIKE WITHOUT "REAL SPENDING CUTS AND BUDGET REFORMS" BOEHNER SAYS TIME TO TALK `ABOUT TRILLIONS' IN SPENDING CUTS BOEHNER SAYS `NOTHING OFF THE TABLE' EXCEPT 'RAISING TAXES' Combine this with the commodity sell-off and I'm quite confident my fed futures trade is...