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Krugman, Rogoff on Charlie Rose http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11710

Martingale strategies only 'work' if you have an infinite bankroll but if you do why would you want to gamble in a casino instead of spending the infinite cash

I believe its impossible to beat craps(Unless they provide some kind of ridiculous bonus, unlikely)

Also if that's all he was doing the casinos would not have banned him, their expert teams seem to disagree with your friend

How does he know?If the casinos can't spot what he was doing your friend certainly wouldn't. He is 'the chief executive officer of Heritage Development LLC, a Wyoming-based company that uses computer-assisted wagering programs for horseracing'. He doesn't sound all that dumb

I'm more interested in knowing how he was able to get this advantage on the casinos without raising their alarms. They have staff with years of training to spot card counters, all kinds of security etc

You make good points, I'm sure however you can't say that the Paulson move didn't help a good deal. These technical points that you raise can't be understood by the average person, I don't know what is the retail participation rate on the MMF but I got to assume its quite decent, decent to the...

I see the difference, one guarantees you can redeem at PAR and the other guarantees you can redeem. The worries were on the former not the latter. Yes the MM industry was large but the expected losses were not. We are talking 1-3c haircuts here which the fund could cover almost on its own

Your math is wrong

I believe you are wrong. What stopped the run wasn't the Fed liquidity it was Paulson's guarantee of all deposits "On September 19, 2008, U.S. Treasury Department announced that up to $50 billion in the ESF would temporarily be made available to guarantee deposits in certain money market...

I read in a book about the crisis that congress amended the legislation and the UST Fx fund can't be used for that purpose anymore. They would have to go do congress to ask for it again. The run would happen within hours/days

Well, but what if there is a run 2008 style?Now they just can't guarantee the whole thing

EU default could affect US money market funds http://news.tradingcharts.com/futures/1/1/159697711.html I believe Congress changed the law that enabled the treasury secretary of using the UST FX intervention fund to prop up the MMF industry like Paulson did. So they are on their own at this...

Debaser, you are correct. I'm on that camp as well. Most people fail at business management and they would be financially better off if they put their savings in a diversified basket of stocks instead of opening a business. The reason they do it though is because people tend to be blind to odds...

Rogoff on the EU. Calls either for a EUR collapse or growth boom http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff81/English

But in the short-run it will lead to TONs of selling as the citizens drop their euros for the new currency. Euro exit it essentially a massive sell order, markets tend to let this kind of shortermism win out over longer term fundamentals

Greenspan: No way Greece won't default. German voters will revolt at some point http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000025566

The Fed will 'ease' by holding the balance sheet steady since they are in the 'stock' view that says the asset purchases matter because they remove USTs from the market Like last year it seems that the debate is whether they will remove 'extended period' this year, not whether they will raise...

The way this is going to work at the micro level is EURs being sold to buy USDs/CHFs/etc as capital flees not just Greece but also Germany/France as their banking system won't be stable enough. This would happen in a Lehman scenario. Even though Greece doesn't have their own currency the EU as a...

In some ways I agree with that, that there are alternatives. The ones that I fear the most as a short are fiscal transfers. The mere mention of no reprofilling by the WSJ sent the EUR back at 3 week highs or something. So yes I'm aware this ain't no free lunch, I was talking about this...