Search results

Even short sellers got burned by Chinese frauds http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904113704576383892664177456.html?mod=BOL_twm_fs They had to pay massive short rates while the stocks were being delisted. Truth is, shorting stocks is a miserable hard business

Yes I saw the Tilson presentation which prompted my interest. I'm not sure the premium to book should be growing, Buffett has signaled the returns on the future won't be as great as in the past and there are less acquisitions available now that they are so big. So the premium to book won't mean...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/06/22/602266/greek-credit-event-default-who-cares-danske-bank-doesnt/

I increased my stake on BRKB. I agree with the WSJ article and Tilson, stock seems quite undervalued compared to the actual business risks

Greenspan on Charlie Rose talked about a possibility to the Greece situation that could solve their problems overnight: an EU guarantee of their debt He said he thinks the probability was extremely low of that. I believe they are higher than he thinks but I do agree with that general sentiment...

Bottom line is where is the statistical evidence that trendfollowing is an edge in intraday data?Acrary seems to have found it but the post where he wrote no longer works. Furthermore he found that 2 out of 13 years intraday trendfollowing did not work well, so for all the lemmings who think...

Most of the things you mentioned are not edges, they are things that enable you take advantage of an edge. A true edge is a way to extract excess profits from the financial markets, having a good broker, solid discipline, etc. Tells you NOTHING about when you will buy and sell and therefore beat...

Can you repost the link?Its not working. This is an interesting study given that my own research has shown a similar conclusion with regards with multiday data(I assume the 60min edge stretches out to multiple days) I want to know how strong his edge is for the 1 min data

NoDoji, considering that a high number of traders using different ways to 'interpret' price action or trendlines and how to trade them will virtually guarantee that some of them will be winners over a certain period of time, what kind of evidence do you have that this is a sound method to use...

I don't recall the rating agencies downgrading US banks on deposit run fears during the crisis but it appears that they like to do that http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sp-downgrades-four-main-greek-banks-b-ccc-deposit-flight-concerns-and-well-general-bankruptc If anything they might just...

Does anyone here uses that site?I'm finding very hard to deposit funds there and I'm wondering how people are doing it

Today is a good example why shorting the EUR is so tempting. A bunch of bad news comes out and the currency drops 1%, even though the CDS and bond markets seem to be expecting a default(Along with most analysts and economists) the markets still respond to bad news flows and it seems likely the...

I'm all for independent thinking and have no problem disagreeing with gurus but I'm not going to go around and pretend I know more about sovereign debt crises than Rogoff and Reinhardt

I guess 800 years of financial crises data is not enough to build a consensus Carmen Reinhart is bullish on the euro http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110324-710699.html I wont be able to take a big position with conviction after this

Pimco is saying QE3 is likely to be extending the extended period or capping UST yields. Its curious they would say that given that there is 0 indication from anyone at the FOMC that this is how they would do it. I do think there is some reasoning to the theory(With all the political pressure...

Rosenberg 99% chance of new recession by 2012 http://noir.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Rosenberg%20Sees%20`99%25%20Chance'%20of%20U.S.%20Recession%20by%202012&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vcLymWs.PVVM.asf

Yw, if you had followed the fed futures trade you would have made even more :D

He helped me be in the 'Fed on hold' trade because I never bought into the V shaped recovery nonsense as a result of his data. Hatzius did his 180 and went bullish last year and now he is sorry for it He is calling for the EUR to collapse, I'm trying to find the relevant data from his book on...

If the positive expectation is on the side of trend following on intraday ES futures, then it must be pretty easy to prove that through some kind of tradestation code. Has anyone done that?Of course, I'm sure the gurus will claim their method can't be codified, that there is an 'art' element to...

Find some free time to watch. Mr Rogoff has already made me quite a bit of money with his aftermath of crises research. He might do it again with his EUR stance. I'm always willing to listen what he has to say