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Here is a trade/investment idea. Piggy back on Einhorn through a Long GM with a stop at $29 http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/28/first-on-cnbc-cnbc-transcript-greenlight-capital-founder-david-einhorn-speaks-with-cnbcs-scott-wapner-on-fast-money-halftime-report.html "EINHORN: IT'S THE RIGHT PLAN...

Yesterday and today were a good 'mini' example of the US stock resilience I'm expecting in the next few years. Yes, they will drop but not much after buyers will come in, scoop them and take them higher. This drop was quite modest (-3.5%) but even if it were bigger (-5%, -10%), I believe the...

thank you, didnt know that. makes sense that this would drop, everyone was talking recession back then

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/26/sharpest-plunge-credit-since-financial-crisis-could-spell-disaster/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw Bank credit, C&I loans

Tks. One problem that I see is that under a US fiscal crisis a lot of banks/brokers are going to go bust. A bucket shop might be a dangerous place to be in, especially given that a lot of their clients are going to implode (like the in the CHF 2015 episode but it might be even worse than that)

I'm looking for an "IB" like broker in Asia, low commission, low fee, broad product universe type broker. They must also be friendly to non-Asian accounts. If anyone know, I would love to know one

I do have a fair amount of US/USD risk. If I'm wrong on Trump and the guy goes nuts, I could get hurt. I spend a fair amount of time thinking about US fiscal crisis risk, to me that is a far bigger risk. A 70's UK style crisis or something worse. If the US goes into a fiscal crisis, this will...

Yes, perhaps cash in the matress or gold in the backyard. Also, have investments spread out geographically (I mean, the custody of the securities). I got brokers in the US and Brazil. Recently I asked one of my offshore banks to open another account (In CHF). If the US goes bust, I will have...

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~af227/pdf/Leverage%20Aversion%20and%20Risk%20Parity%20-%20Asness%20,%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf https://www.aqr.com/cliffs-perspective/risk-parity-why-we-fight-lever https://www.aqr.com/library/aqr-publications/can-risk-parity-outperform-if-yields-rise...

There is this category of funds/ETFs, the 'Regulated Investment Company' (RTCs), that have some benefits with regards to dividends/distributions payments to non-US investors which exempt them from partial or fully of the 30% withholding tax. Is there a list of these ETFs around? I know that...

I don't blame them, a crap ton of their account holders are just in for the free access to TOS software and free real time data. They deserve that interest

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-23/100-years-ago-russian-stocks-had-very-bad-day Return in stocks in 1917 Russia: -100% Bonds: -100% (it actually had some kind of recovery but only in 1989 according to Rogoff) Savings account: almost -100% (only small accounts were sparred) Real...

Lost in this short-termism of the media about 'Trump wont be able to pass this and this will delay that' is the fact that you get paid an expected 5% a year even if nothing happens

Some folks get in trouble in these prime properties when they lever up, and that's the risk. From what I have read, the good prime properties are rarely on the market. Unless one of the owners got in trouble with bank debt and they are forced to sell. From the numbers I'm seeing, the US...

I guess it shouldn't be a surprise to see that they can withstand big shocks, if GDP is down 1/3, there is still 2/3 of GDP left. There is still lots of business being done. Good locations will still have quite a bit of value. The owner of that property is extracting an implicit service fee on...

And "Prime office spaces have exhibited small increases in prices and rents due to their limited availability". So they are already perking up. Prime real estate also will keep paying rents (although a bit lower amounts) during times where cash is king, so one can reinvest (perhaps in other...

http://www.eurobankpropertyservices.gr/Uploads/MarketResearch/ANNUAL_REPORTS/Annual Real Estate Report 2016 fv.pdf So looking at this report, it appears the for prime Greek offices, rents are down around ~30% since 2007. Rental yields were 6.25% in 2007 now they are 8.5%. I made a very rough...

The United States is great, a stability haven, a resilient economy, strong rule of law (except in cases like GM secured bonds and the GSEs networth sweep), stable institutions, deep liquid and broad financial markets. The culture is also fantastic, the movies, the TV shows, etc. Only thing that...

I mentioned I bought a new stock recently, it is NYRT http://seekingalpha.com/article/4023052-new-york-reit-liquidation-30-percentminus-50-percent-upside-likely-downside I put 3.5% there. Its a liquidation play with estimated return values of $11-$12 (from $9.5 now) but the real reason I like...

What about Japan? Thats actually a great scenario to this strategy, a buyer is expecting those predictable decent real returns 4-6% but sometimes the investor will get lucky and catch a bubble. The returns will be large and he can cash out at a good profit and move to another global market. As a...