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Not a surprise, US is a police state, especially when it comes to taxes

If you look at things like IG corporates (LQD) with a 3.24% yield, junk bonds with yields of 5.5% and SPY with a dividend yield of 1.75% plus a buyback yield (on a sustainable basis) of 2 something percent, we are talking about a stock market that will return 4% a year from divs and buybacks...

CHF is really at a good premium these days because of all the disllocations in Europe (I think). Not only its high on a PPP basis, there is also a fair amount of negative carry. One idea that I had recently in order to make it ok to own CHF, is to split 70% CHF plus 30% EM currencies. CHF is...

I used to be a big believer in 'valuations', CAPEs and other things like that. You see the historical numbers and somehow feel this sense of control about how the market behaves. Then I decided to do my backtesting project of testing out allocations, portfolios, random tests using US data from...

"Berlin office buildings are especially hot thanks to the city’s growing population, limited supply and booming tech scene. Prime office capitalization rates there are at 3.25%, a record low, according to CBRE GroupInc."...

Whether its the people or the companies, point is, stock returns are very influced by a few outliers. Anyone looking at 20y periods and pronnouncing 'the small cap effect is dead' 'this or that is over' is missing out on this factor. With stocks, either you got a boatload of data and then can...

Something to think about

http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2017/04/diversification-adaptation-and-stock-market-valuation/ I highly recommend this article. I made similar points in the past (although, I included more things than just diversification and trading costs). I will say, however, that such logic, when...

PCE inflation and Core PCE inflation With the stock market rally/consumer sentiment at highs (and according to the Economist, some models indicate that it is equivalent to a few rate cuts), inflation at target and employment doing well, it looks quite safe that there will be 2 hikes this year...

The problem with bearish stock market predictions in resilient economies http://www.cnbc.com/id/32200989 Market on 'Sugar High,' While Economy Still Asleep: El-Erian CNBC.com Wednesday, 29 Jul 2009 | 9:37 AM ET SPX Level: ~1000 SPX Level today: 2368 plus all the dividends, so perhaps...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-29/why-loan-growth-collapsing-goldman-has-one-theory C&I loans further explained, there was a spike in late 2015 early 2016 as troubled commodity firms tapped revolvers and credit lines. In early 2017 this didn't happen, so it looks bad in a y-o-y basis...

But I'm sure its tricky, even if I could short them, if things go bad for country, the broker probably pulls the borrow. But if they go great, of course, they will let the short ride for all the loss

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-29/you-know-its-global-debt-bubble-when Here is a trade idea I would implement if I could, shorting these Papa Guinea bonds and buying UST bonds with the proceeds (so, a cash version of the CDS contract). Looking at the long-term history of government bonds...

Good article dispelling the myth that the government didnt earn a return on its GSE investment. In fact, it was higher than all bailouts...

Given that the GBP tanked -30% and UK assets tanked between -50% and -70%, we are talking about a staggering loss to non-GBP based investors. Thats why this scenario keeps me up at night, I already got some gold, in the future I plan to increase my diversification by adding perhaps some asian...

Thing is, if you sell, you still got to own something. USD cash will tank a lot in a US fiscal crisis scenario (like the GBP did in the 70's, -30% peak to through). So diversifying out of USD cash would be important. A combo of many different havens is probably better than picking one and having...

Super long-term growth, centuries, GDP growth

You never know what is a haven until after the fact, by owning many you are protected against surprises

I expect a combination of money printing, cutting of retiree benefits, higher taxes and other spending cuts (perhaps the defense budget). But it will take a crisis to get there, Congress doesn't seem to be in a hurry to do anything about it. A UK 70's style crisis seem quite possible to get them...

https://www.greenlightcapital.com/934618.pdf Einhorn presentation. Seems that his thesis is that dividend investors are keeping GM from rising due lack of good income alternatives right now. If GM stock pops, they will be sellers as the yield will go down. By separating the dividend and capital...