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The House is close to passing Healthcare, that's where the pundits never learn. They think its a binary system where they make claims 'healthcare will never pass' and if they are right, they count 1 for the 'I was right count', if they are wrong, they count 1 to the 'I as wrong count'. Overall...

From the New Yorker article: "Because the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives will almost certainly not initiate the ouster of a Republican President, the first step in any realistic path to impeachment is for Democrats to gain control of the House. The next opportunity is the...

"Law and history make clear that Trump’s most urgent risk is not getting ousted; it is getting hobbled by unpopularity and distrust. He is only the fifth U.S. President who failed to win the popular vote. Except George W. Bush, none of the others managed to win a second term. Less dramatic than...

http://fortune.com/2011/06/12/buffett-how-inflation-swindles-the-equity-investor-fortune-classics-1977/ Great article

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/27/upshot/art-of-the-bluff-the-limits-of-trumps-negotiation-strategy.html?ref=economy Decent article about the limits of negotiation tactics in politics. I would just add that Trump is likely well aware of these limits

But lets assume the worst case, lets say I`m saying all of this because I`m being a contrarian indicator which suggests the market is about to top out. SPY then drops 50% of the next 12 months. I havent checked my equity exposure lately but its probably around 65%, so I lose about 32%, but I got...

But there is more, even when the skeptic is right and the company ends up failing and going to $0, the skeptic will be in a bad situation because his bad strategy/mindset was rewarded with profits. So now he is more likely to do more of it, perhaps even with more size but almost certaintly with...

If you look at why indexing works, a lot of the studies show that most stocks don't do much. 2/3 of the Russell components don't beat their own index (and I believe about 20% go to $0). Yet, there are a few outliers that carry the index upward. Its the huge sucessful companies, the NFLX's etc...

What these contrarians need to ask themselves is 'how would a stock trade if it was a company run by a genius but the market only gradually realized that?', especially if it was in a disruptive industry. And I believe the answer would be that it would have a rising premium over conventional...

I truly wish I had learned all of this early on in my trading/investing career. I would have made a lot more money in stocks and avoided a lot of mistakes. I had too strong of a 'contrarian bug' of wanting to take the other side of convexity, when that works, its fun and you look like the manly...

When I Einhorn calls AMZN/TSLA 'bubble stocks' he is being reckless in my view. A better name is 'genius stocks'. In these genius stocks whats matter is not necessarly what you can see in the balance sheet, cash flows, etc, what matters is the chance that the person running it is actually a...

So its useful to think in terms of convexity and how that convex exposure changes overtime. In stocks like AMZN, TSLA *I think* thats how a lot of investors are thinking. They look at recent events and try to figure out how the convexity exposure is changing, whether it is increasing or...

Something along with this line of thinking... If you met Michael Jordan when he was 15, how much would you pay for 10% of his lifetime sports and marketing earnings? Of course, if depends on what you thought of him. If you saw his true potential, you would pay a giant amount, everybody would...

You could say the same thing about 'arms length' transactions. yet, its in the books and the IRS goes after people/companies who they think are violating that

Thing is, this profit collapse risk that Grantham/Montier have been warning for a decade is real but when Trump got elected the risks associated with that changed. It simply makes little sense to think those risks rose, tax reform/cuts, less regulations, better infrastructure and potential...

I disagree with Montier but he brings a good different perspective https://www.fuw.ch/article/to-get-back-to-fair-value-the-sp-500-would-need-to-drop-by-50/ Why I disagree? Right now the dividend+buyback yield of the market is around ~4%, a 50% drop would take that to 8%. But dividends and...

Trump tax proposal The core of his tax plan (personal and corporate income tax reform) cost about $5T, with $2T of revenue coming from repeal of deductions. But congress is likely to negotiate rates up, Trump is asking for 15% as a negotiating tactic. Total cost will be more along the lines...

Yes, he proposes 15% and settles at 20% or 22%. Better than asking 20% and getting 27%

Going to sell 1/4 of my EWZ position today and subtitute it for VWO. This is going to help me deal with the volatility of the pension reform in Brazil. I fear a scenario where the market tanks, I get out using a MA stop and get back in, over and over again. Locking gains in 1/4 and having a 50%...

"After 15 years of publishing, Citron can confidently state that Chemours (NYSE:CC) is the most morally and financially bankrupt company that we have ever witnessed." Pretty good example of why the stock market and good equity investors tend to appear 'optimistic idiots', its because the...