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I'm comfortable with my exposure there. To me this is similar to the Trump sell-off, back then EWZ went from $38 to $31 in a few days, then grinded back to $40. If there was some significant chance of a lefist government taking over, I would be scared shitless and would sell it all almost...

Here is an article of the lefist finance minister talking about the need of pension reform over a year ago, right before important votes on impeachment https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/barbosa-reforma-da-previdencia-esta-na-agenda-no-governo-18974606 So I don't think this changes much, that...

Although its a little early to say but I don't think this is such a big deal. The president is likely to resign before June 6 when the electoral justice was set to try his election. He is likely to lose there and he knows it, so he will resign. This will lead to a new president to be elected by...

The brazilian constitution is vague enough on what constitutes an impeachable offense, it mentions something that can be translated into "Administrative Crimes" (which can also include regular crimes). The US is the same thing, what is a high crime or misdemeanour? Its vague enough that it can...

With this impeachment thing, if there is one thing that I learned from the Brazil 2016 impeachment and the research I had to do around that time is that what consitutes grounds for an impeachment and what doesn't is largely irrelavant. It does not really matter whether someone 'deserves'...

Trump has not tweeted in the last 24 hrs. If he doesn't tweet today, it will be the first time since April 15. I think he got the message

Fed futures are up quite a bit since Comey firing, up more today. Price action keeps telling me that I'm wrong but I just don't see it. Regardless of the Trump agenda dying or not, in all likelihood the US economy will continue to grow at a 1.5-2.5% clip in the next year or two. It will be hard...

These days you cant even count on John Mccain and some others voting with the Republicans because they don't like Trump so its possible that Mike Pence would actually be more bullish than Trump as he might unite the Republicans and/or bring some Democrats on board. That's a real possibility...

http://theresurgent.com/i-know-one-of-the-sources/ This is probably pretty accurate, Trump is being a lot more hard headed than I expected. He needs to lay low for a while in order to keep his congressional support. If he doesn't, then he is toast. However, Mike Pence is likely to keep both...

A good balance for an investor mindset might be 75% San Francisco and 25% New York. 75% Elon Musk 25% Jim Chanos. I would lean more toward the optimistic side because its more robust/antifragile by its nature ($0 bound in assets and unlimited reward) and the pessimistic side is there for a dose...

Good idea. Its a shame it took me a long time to realize the harm that a NY type mindset has (which is like 90%+ of traders so almost everyone you talk to and most of the books in the topic), I should have been looking to learn from SF type people a long-time ago At the very least, its good to...

The beauty is that in some forms of convexity bet plays, you can be an complete imbecile and still have limited risk. Like in venture capital, or stock investing in convexity stocks. Worse case they go to $0 and you ride it there. A short has to actively manage risk because at some point they...

But of course, the trick is to hold onto these sorts of winners. Who is the type of people that can do that? Studborn optimists, when I realized that its when I truly got convexity. Taleb understands all the math behind it but he is the last man who earth that would hold onto plays like that...

According to the WSJ, AMZN IPO has been a 500 bagger so far to investors. That's the kind of margin of error skeptics have in convexity plays, none. They got to be right almost every single time and longs can be wrong almost all the time!

Search on the web "Google Campus [Your City Name]". If avaliable, you can pretty much get free office space/internet/social interaction courtesy of Google. I went there a few times in my city and its fine, sometimes when I'm bored I go there. The struggle usually is to find the energy to commute...

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-picture-ray-dalio

Friendly alert to update Windows to prevent any issues from this global hacking outbreak. One security flaw can lead to a loss bigger than several good trades

About that US fiscal crisis risk, I plan to dig-up on the US "10-k" soon http://usafacts.org/ This was a project by Steve Ballmer to create a 10-K for the US

http://www.economist.com/Trumptranscript?cid1=cust/ddnew/n/n/n/20170511n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/la/Daily_Dispatch/email&etear=dailydispatch

I was wrong on NYRT. I thought it could perhaps get liquidated at $11-$13. The CEO came out and said $9.25 was most likely. But she will be out of a job in 1 year (its a liquidation) and has an incentive to lowball a bit in order to get another job after it (she doesnt want to look bad). So...