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https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/couple-thoughts-ray-dalio Dalio updated thoughts on Trump. Kinda weird that he would mention China FX policy in the piece, for no reason. I guess he is long and wants to increase the short squeeze there

"Dynamic scoring is potentially more accurate, but it is also more easily abused by those who want to promote their policies with an unhealthy dose of wishful thinking. Tax cuts rarely pay for themselves. My reading of the academic literature leads me to believe that about one-third of the cost...

something like 5% OTM puts with 1 or 2 months to go

I'm looking for data on this. The CBOE has an index, the Put Protection Index http://www.cboe.com/products/strategy-benchmark-indexes/put-protection-index but the problem is that the data of that index is bundled with the return of the S&P500, and even if you remove the S&P500 return from there...

At least this Grantham guy implements his investing in a way that corrects for his flawled method. I recall from a previous piece of Montier that they were long 70% in mostly EM equities and 30% in bonds/TIPS/etc. So despite spending like 80% of their time talking about how the S&P500 couldn't...

https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/public-commentary/gmo-quarterly-letter.pdf?sfvrsn=44 Grantham throwing the towel. He now talks about how US markets might need 20 years to go back to previous valuation levels. The dude has been calling for mean reversion for like 10 years and now says...

This week I listened to a great audiobook, https://www.audible.com/pd/Self-Development/Nonviolent-Communication-Audiobook/B00TJJNSQG?qid=1496440028&sr=1-1 It talks about how to better communicate in a way that creates less resistance and produces more benefits, harmony, better relationships...

Well, this scenario is starting to play out, stocks are getting in a more pricey range and there are reasons to think policies will struggle passing so I'm looking to add some more 'tail hedging' to my portfolio. Will buy some IWM and/or SPY/QQQ puts, sacrifice some return in order to decrease risk

Well, honestly, the second my wire hits the account, I'm converting to a digital coin and getting it the hell out of there. I choose them because they are pretty big and processed my documents quickly, I'm still waiting on a few other sites to finish accepting documents. I think I will stay on...

I was watching Martin Skreli 'This week in investing 4' and he shows how he is managing his portfolio. He is 40% long select biotech/drugs names he understands, he is short around 20% in names he dislikes. He also mentioned in the past that he would be happy with a 6% return a year It struck...

Chuck Rhodes couldn't stop him

GBTC borrow rate went from low single digits to ~50% at IB. I guess that's how this will balance out. If nothing much happens in a week or two and GBTC doesn't put some good short setups, I will cover and move on. I"m still waiting on BTC-e to credit my account from a wire I made last week...

Thanks for the suggestions

Good buys, these things are proving a lot more resilient than expected. Hopefully they go more parabolic and become good shorts again. But this GBTC thing is just so stupid, 100% premium to NAV and at some point the dealers will be able to deal with the excess demand/accounts/documentation and...

Trump needs to stop with this Twitter bullshit soon, it looks like his administration has a negative carry as a result of it

Here is a great twitter fight that helped me understand myself and some of these ideas https://tinyurl.com/yd939ss5 NassimNicholasTaleb‏Verified account@nntaleb Feb 1 Replying to @R_Thaler "Outside your shit papers, in the real world, risk-takers work with thresholds to simplify life...

So to sum, to Jim Chanos, drinking a little kool aid is actually healthy for him. To Jeremy Siegel yelling 'bullshit' every once and a while is also quite healthy. And to achieve an overall good balance (and other improvements) our gut feelings will do a MUCH better job than our concious mind...

Saying 'shorting is stupid' can lead to a great outcome, which is to be very good long/bull (SF type mindset) and ocasionally drop a short hammer instead of the opposite is which is to defend short selling/idenfity yourself as a bear at heart (A NY skeptic type mindset), then do a...

One of my rules is 'shorting is stupid' and I 'discovered' that largely by listening to gut feelings. I short all the time, and I do think it has a place in a trader arsenal but at the same time I know that thinking that shorting is stupid has so many benefits. The best shorters I see around...

Along with this convexity stuff, something that I always knew about but never truly got it was the power of the subconcious. "Gut feelings", "instincts" "body reactions" and things like that. I knew about it, and understood that there was some usefulness in it but I probably vastly...