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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The S&P500 total return index looks like was up 10x in that data period, so being short during that period and still only be down 25% is a huge sign of skill by Mr. Chanos, yet if the average trader/investor does not possess the fee structure that he has (which he believed in by becoming...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    If I'm math is right, here are the returns after fees of $100 invested with him from 1985-2005 So he is an interesting way to protect a portfolio against a market decline and improve risk adjusted returns, yet his actual short selling doesn't produce much in profit
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Something that occured to me, how did Jim Chanos got rich? I believe he got rich by going long an equity position, namely the shares of his investment partnerships, and there was a lot of positive convexity there because of the fee structure. His actual short selling doesn't make that much...
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    Data on long-term returns from buying way OTM puts on the S&P500

    This was the cheapest I could find so far https://datashop.cboe.com/end-of-day-options-summary "Optsum data is an end of day index option summary for CBOE traded options in ^SPX, ^OEX, and ^VIX with volume traded, open interest, open, high low and last sales prices for every series in chain...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'm not sure I understand the question
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    GDAX is saying that trades are final and will not be reversed but some traders from twitter that I follow are reporting that their trades (buying the flash crash lows) were reversed and the money is gone. Good lesson here is that if you get a huge benefit in one of these brokers, convert it to...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The trades were busted apparently, balances reversed. Nuts. I wonder what happened to the folks who thought they bought at the flash crash lows and then sold when prices recovered, are they short like it happens in stock markets? This is like the wild west but without sheriffs
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Ethereum flash crashed massively on GDAX today, people got filled as low as bellow $10 per ETH. There is just so many ways you can lose most or all of your capital in this coin world. You got to be so careful
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bitcoin comparisson, gold, money supply, currency
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I posted a New Yorker article a while back that, using statistics and history, suggested that the Republicans would lose seats in the 2018 mid-terms. Its still quite possible that it will happen, it is noteworthy however that so far in the 2017 special elections, the Republicans are 5-0 over the...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    What's tough about selling into strength and doing the tactical rebalancing is that the data does indicate that new all-time highs usually lead to excess returns in stocks. I posted an article from the the Daily Wealth showing just that, even outside the US. So cutting down size into strength...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I trimmed my position two times, at 36.70s and 34.60s. They were not great exits relative to short-term peaks before them ($39s and $35s) so one of my goals is to improve my tactical 'rebalancing' of locking in some gains to prepare against future vol or other surprises and invest the proceeds...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    EWZ is down today because a Senate committee didn't approve the Labour reform bill. Doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot because this is still quite likely to be approved by the Senate (the committe merely gives a stamp of approval or not), yet this does suggest that the current government lost...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    If IB allows shorting of this bond, I might take a small short to help hedge out the rest of my book, along with 30y bonds, gold, cash and SPY puts which I already own
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    Non-pro vs Professional data fees

    I'm a non-resident and I got a account at TDameritrade
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    "FED'S DUDLEY: HALTING TIGHTENING CYCLE NOW WOULD IMPERIL ECONOMY" Fed is starting to communicate to the market its new methodology more blatantly
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    https://themerkle.com/new-us-bill-will-require-travelers-entering-the-states-to-declare-bitcoin-at-the-border/ The US is world champion in coming up with ridiculous surveillance and law enforcement ideas
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    http://www.dailywealth.com/preview/3573?print=1
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21723422-economists-and-federal-reserve-are-not-about-abandon-phillips
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