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Good investors are known to hold multi-baggers stocks for a long-time. Buffett has many in his portfolio that he bought decades ago. Ackman held General Growth for a 20x gain (IIRC). I believe Peter Lynch described some 10x gains in his book. Even Hempton bragged to me via email that he bought...

Random thought: People don't seem to realize the fragility of pessmistic mindsets in the stock market because they don't mark their nonsense/crap to market. TSLA IPO'ed at $17. Now its at $300 and people continue to talk shit about as if that behavior made sense. Eventually they will be right...

But even some hedge fund folks do it similarly, the concentrated stock funds run capital with 10-20 stock positions. So 10% to 5% per stock. EWZ is like 50 companies, BRK is around 120 (between private stakes and public stocks), PSH is about 10. But even if you were to consider then as 1 stock...

Most people learn 'risk management' from hedge fund folks doing interviews (market wizards, etc), those guys have risk of ruin at ~-20%. I don't, its all about how much tolerance for drawdowns you have. If the S&P drops 30%, I will probably drop 15-20% but then 8 times out of 10, it will rebound...

My EWZ moving average stop is closing to being triggered but even if it does, I will try to stick around with the full position for a little longer (perhaps use the $33 level as a short-term stop). There is a mini coup going on in Brazil, the house president is trying to take down President...

I believe there is something to these rules of thumb

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/07/stock-market-yields-are-higher-than-you-think/ Some of the buybacks are unsustainable as they are being done with borrowed money. But even backing that out, US companies are offering a shareholder yield (div+buybacks) of 4-4.5%, plus long-term growth of...

As far as Asset Allocation goes, its interesting that I have less stock exposure than Jeremy Grantham/Montier. Last time I read their stuff they were long 70%, mostly in EMs and I think some Europe too. The rest was in cash. One has to be VERY careful reading around these 'bears' that sounds one...

Decided to check my exposures to see if I want to make any changes one way or the other I was actually running a bit of less risk that I thought. Under method 2 (where I separate low risk equity like OAK/NYRT/BR REITs from the others) I'm long 52% stocks (and there are dozens of companies...

Funny thing about AMZN is that if you pick all the Henry Blodget stocks that he was pushing in the late 90's, I'm sure most of them went to $0, yet, if you put in AMZN in the sample (his most famous call), its very possible (heck, its very likely) that overall an investor would have done...

Did a quick monte on excel to check out the system comparrison idea Series 1 is 2-1 system is a 0.66% win rate system that pays +1% 33% of the time, +2% 33% of the time and loses -1% 33% of the time The other system is the same system, except is loses -0.20% per period but 2% of the time it...

And in an alternative reality, OREX went from 2.5 (the price Skreli shorted at) to 1 and he covered at a nice profit and was hailed as a genius. You never know which result from the randomness you will get, so its more useful to think in terms of 'convexity exposures' and if you are increasing...

The 2 systems can be essentially the same, except in the 2nd one the person sacrificies a little bit of profit to obtain that convexity exposure (say, by using skill to buy equity stakes in certain companies). So the person increases their 'convexity exposure' by acting a certain way. Sometimes...

On convexity: Whats better? -A 3 to 1 reward to risk trade -A 2.9 to 1 reward to risk trade but that has a bonus payoff of 10-1+ a small percentage of the time? And by 10-1+, I'm also including 50-1, 100-1, 600-1, 5000-1 or more payoffs that will show up when you get extremely lucky. The...

Thiel's pointing out that venture capitalists don't understand powerlaws helps me understand why it took 4 times reading Antifragile to finally understand powerlaws/convexity. Its not an obvious thing, even the people getting rich off it dont get it (Skrelli being a great example). Most people...

The IYI also railed me that none of my ideas were 'original' or 'new'. He mentioned how 'we already know this or that since X'. Proving my point even more. They don't care about usefulness or helping people (which heuristics can do), all they care about is 'being the first', statistics and...

What's funny is that I raised this point on the article and the idiot PhD from NY I was emailing asked '300% in the S&P? What?' Typical convexity blind intelectual idiot heavily influced by NY finance culture that uses year end accounting

I'm reading Peter Thiel's book as part of my research (on the SF side) and its fantastic. He even has a name for what I call a "New York Type" (typical WS asshole) he calls them a "MBA type" and how these people's biases (heuristics) hurt them when it comes to Venture Capital. It confirmed a lot...

I understand Taleb a lot better now, these people live in such a ridiculous bubbles that a lot of the time, the ONLY way to get through their heads is to humilate them socially and intelectually. If you just act nice, they will put out this ego defense field and rationalize crap to defend their...

So I sent the first draft of my NY vs SF investing mindsets article to a friend of mine that lives in my city, he said writing wasn't his forte and he forwarded the article to his friend, a risk manager of a hedge fund that is doing (right now) his Phd course at New York University (is there any...