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"$10,000 invested in the Netflix IPO in May 2002 is worth over $1.5 million today"

If Trump is tweeting this, its a very bad sign They should still get tax reform passed (which is probably the stock market is not caring about any of this) as it should be easier to form a consensus given that tax cuts are politically profitable (and cutting healthcare benefits is not) but other...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/americans-feel-good-about-the-economy-not-so-good-about-trump-j57v0var "There is one notable bright spot for Trump. Though views of the White House as an institution are at the lowest level ever recorded by the poll -- with 48 percent now...

Venture Capital deals per state chart https://www.pwc.com/us/en/moneytree-report/assets/MoneyTree_Report_Q2_2017_Final_F.pdf

Brazil gross debt to GDP projections under 3 scenarios

I decided to do a quick little study to try to figure out if the inflation trends are worrisome and whether I need to pullback from the Fed funds trade I complied some data on Excel of the main "core" inflation metrics that the Fed looks at Looking at the annualized rates since March (when...

I will lose money, except I have a zero bound in my long stock investments. I cant lose more than what I put in, plus I usually have some hedges in place (UST bonds, gold, cash, way OTM puts in the index). So I will have a limited drawdown, I will never lose everything or be liquidated. For put...

So, what do the numbers say in terms of portfolio loss? Also, how is that not different from the banking industry modeling to the past 10-20 years and then suffering massively when something worse happens?

How do you know? The VIX equivalent went to almost 180 back then And if history shows anything is that there is always a new record to made, just keep getting data and it will happen eventually. What is your P&L if the VIX goes to levels never seen before in a very short period of time? I'm...

"Some of the critics of these ideas —over the past two decades— have been countering that this proposal resembles buying "lottery tickets". Lottery tickets are patently overpriced, reflecting the "long shot bias" by which agents, according to economists, overpay for long odds. This comparison...

What happens to your equity if October 1987 repeats?

Two things make, to me, Einhorn (GLRE) very hard to invest. First is performance fees without a high watermark and 2nd is the fact that he appears to be convexity/powerlaw blind and this leads him to throw money away shorting certain stocks...

Very good piece by Duy on the Fed. I agree with everything https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-07-13/yellen-leaves-markets-with-the-wrong-impression

Chatwithtraders

EWZ ripping hard on Lula's conviction. I think this hybrid approach then to blindly following a Moving Average stop, the idea is, when the stop is about to be triggered, check to see if the current situation has room for a more inteligent stop placement. if it doesnt, stick with it, otherwise...

Here is a good example of that, although outside finance https://www.inc.com/glenn-leibowitz/the-single-reason-why-people-cant-write-according-.html "a difficulty in imagining what it is like for someone else not to know something that you know. The curse of knowledge is the single best...

I forgot to include GM and GM calls. I still got 1% there

https://www.economist.com/news/international/21724803-charities-and-poor-migrants-are-among-hardest-hit-crackdown-financial-crime-means In a weird way, the terrorists are winning, indirectly

https://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21724813-it-time-rethink-anti-money-laundering-rules-swingeing-fines-have-made-banks-too-risk-averse Interesting article

S&P500 total return index since 2009, that I mentioned the other day. Maybe the US was lucky but the idea is that stock bears/pessimists are not aware that when their move to cash/shorts is right, they are right logarithmically (decelerating benefits), when they are wrong, they are wrong...