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Interesting stock is this DRYS, a shipper. one of the few that sorta goes down exponentially rather than up as a lot of stocks do

Interesting probability fact "Sally Clark’s life was ruined by a wrong-headed assumption of independent probability. Her first child died of SIDS (called “cot death” in her native UK) in 1996. When her second son also died of SIDS the following year, she was accused of murdering both her...

A giant move

Amazing move on BTC. When it was down to $1800, the bears were all out calling for a colapse of the 'bubble'. Then, convexity happened I found another convexity mistake to me. When BTC went from 2300 to 2550, I bought Ethereum on the thought the they both tend to move in tandem but ETH was...

Here is one realization I'm flirting with as I read the book, Trump might get reelected DESPITE the fact that he might fail to accomplish key parts of his agenda (like the Mexico wall or infrastructure). The reason is that he will be straightforward about it. If people feel like he really tried...

Effectively the same intelectual yet idiots who read and say that business managers should not micromanage and must have focus and priorities will "forget" about that when is Trump that the one that is doing it

Here is another good example: Yet when Trump does some of that, he is portrayed by the media as having ADHD, having the attention span of an ant, only caring about his ego etc That's one way to interpret things, another is the lion analogy and his 'no nonsense' approach. But of course, the...

I'm listening to the audiobook Understanding Trump by Newt Gringich, I'm surprised by the quality of the book so far. Its helping me understand better some of the behaviors from Trump and relax a bit about the risks associated with his presidency. Here is an interesting part of the book...

When I say that New York can be a bad influence on a investor due negativity, perhaps I can explain myself better. I'm sure people there are plenty positive, maybe even average relative to other cities. Perhaps even the numbers show that they own plenty of stocks. But they are also known as...

The great William Eckhardt talking about similar themes in The New Market Wizards

But as a rule of thumb when I use the word convexity, I mean situations where your risk is limited but you might make a huge, almost unlimited amount of profits

You might want to read Antifragile by Taleb, plus do a search on my posts with the word convexity over the past few months. I have been rambling on it for a while, it would take quite some time for me to explain. But Taleb offers a good introduction in the topic

But a key part of any system, is the psychology part. Thats why I have been hammering on positivity vs negativity. People are their worst enemies when it comes this, its very hard not to shot yourself on the foot and behave like a pessimist (like I did when I trailed the stop too close to the...

I obsessed over little gains there, trying to lock profits and trading with my "smart" thinking, yet the bulk of the profits lied in a unsmart passive approach that simply tried to capture exponential gains If you think about it, thats how Richard Dennis, Ed Seykota and others got rich. They...

I'm still making mistakes when it comes to convexity and powerlaw trading ideas. I bought Ethereum as a swing trade on Sunday at 138. It popped to 150s and 160s and I sold half of the position and kept the other half as a convexity bet . I then put in sort of a trailing stop to try to ride ETH...

Decided to cut one third of my Fed futures position and buy late 2018 eurodollar puts. I think this will make the trade easier to manage and I could get lucky and make a lot in the puts if Tax cuts are passed

https://www.economist.com/news/business/21725010-hidden-message-american-companies-balance-sheets-united-states-debt "What matters, however, is the size of firms’ net debts (debts less cash) relative to profits. Comparing these is rather like deducting the cash in your bank account from your...

The bond market is different. Especially things like gov bonds, investment grade corporate bonds, mortgages etc. There if you are right, you make a little bit, if you are wrong, you can lose huge. The assymetry tends to run the other way (exceptions are things like junk bonds, certain EM bonds...

To me, this was a big lesson that took me some time to realize. Folks like Taleb will never say this, he lives in NY and is a pessimist but this is the kind of thing that SHOULD have been in his books. The truth is that negativity/pessimism in the stock market is fragile. Positivity is a lot...

Point is, folks going around making bearish/skeptical comments about certain companies dont hold themselves accountable by keeping a tally on this sort of thing. If they did, they would be down several times their networth (in reality, they would be margin called but I'm speaking of a 'virtual'...