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I have no idea whether Uber is a buy at $68B valuation but I sure heck know that an invesment philosophy that regulardly uses DCF to get out of investments like this, is quite likely inferior to one that uses tools like trailing stops or that is more intuitive in nature (ex: "I know Jeff Bezos...

The Economist talking nonsense about Uber " Investors rationalise its valuation by assuming that in the long run it will be highly profitable, with a dominant share of a large market. In 2014 Bill Gurley, a well-known tech investor who was then an Uber director, estimated that the pool of...

Interesting backtest that I run just now. 100% long US stocks since Jan 1948 to Dec 2016 Monthly metrics Sharpe Ratio 0.0966 Sortino 0.1260 MAR ratio (CAGR/Max DrawDown) 0.1403 Max DD -51.59% (real) Total Gain 14,431% 100% US stocks when unemployment is bellow 7%, 100% T-Bills when its above...

I say might because its dangerous to incorporate contrarianism into a convexity system. Yet it seems necessary as if you dont do it, you might start gambling, buying everything, believing every story etc. Again, it comes back to the balance between optimism and pessimism. The yin and yang of...

A few months ago Tepper started the theme of "the globe is having a syncronized growth period for the first time since the financial crisis, dont short equities. Europe is a good place to buy stocks", I posted the videos and pretty much agreed with the theme. Now, it seems that every single...

Another thing that I'm doing is getting more "formal" training in math, accounting, statistics etc. I always learned things as I needed them and found that connecting to the real world (through practice, trial and error, trading) yielded me more lessons and more skill than academic type...

I plan to widen my macro studies to include Venezuela, Russia, Japan and many other countries (pretty much any that had an interesting macro development in it). I'm getting some macro data from tradingeconomics and Im looking to run some portfolio tests in it. This is something I should have...

Brazilian stock index during the 80s inflation and hyperinflation. Stocks can be incredibly poor inflation hedges sometimes. This amounted to a -95% real loss to investors, over the same time frame, fixed income (as measured by the real return on savings accounts) produced a -44% return. Fixed...

A very good older article by Taleb https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-real-life-is-not-a-casino A typical intelectual yet idiot will read this and 'this is obvious' and then talk shit about an upcoming IPO or bitcoin. Focusing on probability instead of payoffs "Consider...

Could China be actually one of the few countries in the world where the politicians have skin in the game? If they fuck up, they got 1 billion of people that will be angry, prostesting and trying to take them down. If democracy is implement, the current leaders will probably be imprisioned...

"My anger with "empirical" claims in risk management does not come from research. It comes from spending twenty tense (but entertaining) years taking risky decisions in the real world managing portfolios of complex derivatives, with payoffs that depend on higher order statistical properties —and...

sle, I also struggle with this sometimes. Here is what I found helpful -Properly done diaphragmatic breathing. As someone mentioned, this helps to slow down the sympatethic nervous system (flight or fight responses) and trigger the parasympathetic system (which calms people down). Its one of...

If I may give you some advice, I believe your methodology is not very good for a beginner. You try to capture trend days, in those days, typically if you are on the right side of the trend, you risk very little but can make a huge amount (relative to the risk). Its similar to what Taleb calls...

I plan to continue to play this like I have been doing, small shorts here and there (with stops). This is more of a day/swing trade which is not the point of this journal. But I just thought it was very interesting to bring this up because its a situation that is so unusual

Over the last 6 months DRYS average losing day was -12.3%, the avg winning day was +10.76%. Losing days outnumbered winning days by 2-1 (81 vs 41). Worst day was -39.76%, best day was +105.28% Price fell from $4,500 down to $3. If one were to invert the signs of the gain and losses, it would...

Now having said all that, the borrow rate is 100% and there are a lot of shorts in. Its not free money by any means. I do expect the Nasdaq or the SEC to shutdown this robbery of shareholders soon, but in the meantime, the stock can do anything

IIRC, the stock was at $100,000+ (split adjusted) a bunch a months ago, now its a $2 and the spiral continues

I'm always fascinated by things like this, the exception to the rule. Yes a stock investment usually have unlimited upside and limited downside, but in some situations, if the person is adding to the investment, this can be flipped. DRYS is a stock with giant downside for a long that averages...

In terms of P&L, one wouldnt be able to see the exponentiality as a long would soon be down almost all of his investment and a short would have a neglegible amount of money short. but if the trader is adding to the position (long or short), then the "convexity" will be there. Even though its to...

You need a log chart to be able to understand what is going on there, thats why I say this. its down 99.99% from the highs and it just continues to go down, over and over