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From my article: "What is the ideal balance between thinking like a Silicon Valley optimist and a Wall Street skeptic? It’s hard to tell exactly, and numbers represent more art than science but as a general rule, something like 70% optimism and 30% pessimism, in the long-run, makes sense. One...

A great example of talk vs behavior is Jeremy Grantham. Guy talks bearish for like 10 years and then you read about whats is in his portfolio, he is 70% long stocks (loaded with EMs) and 30% in cash (or something like that). He talks bearishly (a fragile behavior in the stock market, as usually...

I wrote that one because its a habit that contradicts my analysis/gut/experience. I might be bullish on something but then get nervous because of noise, pretty soon I'm liquidating the trade and cancelling the stop because I don't want to 'lose more money', its a dumb move. I'm behaving in a way...

This is a new approach that I will be trying. I'm allowing myself to cancel 1 stop per day (to exit a trade sooner than planned) because I noticed that not letting myself to cancel any stops doesn't work. Its kinda like someone losing weight got to eat a little bit bad here and there otherwise...

Here are the results of my first time doing that sentence stem exercise In order to become a more balanced investor/trader I will stop exposing myself to traders that harm my trades I will stick with stops no matter what, I will only allow myself to cancel 1 stop per day (I have a habit of...

Why are you bullish on it?

Absolutely. The media has a story they want to tell, they will not facts get in the way of a good story!

And I say this to hold myself accountable, I'm bringing back these sorts of 'sentence completion' exercises to my weekly routine. I learned about it back in 2002 (through the book, The Six Pillars of Self-Esteem) and it had a huge influence on me back then (it literally saved my life). I then...

Some people understand this concept of balace between optimism/pessimism bullishness/prudence longs/shorts-insurance intuitively but they do not understand it at a more concious level. I'm all for having a role for intuition in decision making but becoming more aware of that balance (bringing it...

I have watched very little Fox News in my lifetime but they do have the best tagline that investors could ever hear. "Fair and balanced". I dont know if they are actually fair and balanced but its a pretty good mindset to have when dealing with investments/wealth creation

With regards to this idea, I finished my Wall Street vs Silicon Valley article and already got back from someone that did the grammar corrections. I'm sending to a few people to get some feedback on and whether they disagree with the logic of the argument (one of these people is actually Nassim...

The Chanos thing is fascinating because he is an INSURANCE TOOL that is used by people that have, usually, lots of bullish positions. His actual fund does not make money (just pull up the numbers from valuewalk.com) but his RELATIVE performance is terrific. He was flat when the SPY returned 10x...

If you look at what Mark Spiztnagel learned from the Taleb Empirica failure as well as his own studies, its that you had to be selective about which periods to do the put buying (he reserves those to periods where valuations are very high) as well as to use that put buying as a tool to get long...

From a newsletter I subscribe to: "I got to know David Tice back in the late 1990s, during the last great Melt Up. We often spoke at the same conferences. Tice was one of the only guys – on TV and in print – loudly sounding the alarm that the late 1990s tech-stock Melt Up would have to come to...

Long URA with stop at $12, about 1.5% position but I might add more. Uranium stock ETF, its down 6 years in a row, 90% drop. The recent price action shows some signs of a bottom, high convexity or reward to risk so I'm taking a shot. I plan to trail profits on the way up and hopefully gain many...

Site is down and it looks like the Feds are breathing down their necks http://www.businessinsider.com/us-indicts-alexander-vinnik-alleged-operator-btc-e-money-laundering-2017-7 Clients are screwed?

If you look at the main things about the Trump agenda, they all seem to have gone bad. Healthcare is on life support, Tax Reform is already facing big bumps (no Healthcare fiscal savings to fund it and the Border adjustment tax is now dead, that tax was going to be a big part of the funds)...

Having said all that, I'm watching Damodaran's free Valuation classes on youtube currently. I do think DCF and what he teaches has some value. This is my philosophy, I'm not Anti-Intelectualzing, Pro-Trump, Anti-Academia or anything like that. I'm anti-bias, I like learning from all sources...

And what I'm saying becomes even more true when there are capital gains taxes involved (even more when the rate is very high). Because by exiting you will be reinvesting into something else a lower amount (due to the taxes) and there is the chance that rates will go down in the future, thus...

If one looks at how Damodaran DCF estimate of TSLA worth has fluctuated overtime, it quickly becomes clear that his estimate is very unstable. Something that is so volatile like that is not reliable, better and more robust tools are needed