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https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21725777-basket-cases-frontier-economies-how-about-phoenixes-how-crisis-hit-economies

http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=32601 good piece

One can see that the PE ratio from the late 1800s and early 1900s (gold standard period) was quite low, removing that out of the sample probably pushes up the median and average PE and therefore makes the current market looks less overvalued. Point is, backtests are quite tricky, its not as...

Speaking of the Shiller PEs and Asset Allocation, I recall that in my AA tests, if I started my test from 1879 (instead of the classic year of 1926 that is used in the academic literature), the ideal portfolio (one that makes sense given the historical data) would be vastly different than from...

"The tragedy is as follows. Suppose that you are deriving probabilities of future occurrences from the data, assuming (generously) that the past is representative of the future. Now, say that you estimate that an event happens every 1,000 days. You will need a lot more data than 1,000 days to...

I think a lot of that is related to the fact that part of the negative NY influence (coming from books, media, NY gurus) is the reliance a lot on statistics and analysis. And statistics/analysis can be very persuasive to some people. You show to someone the stats of Shiller PEs and stock...

To me, this was a HUGE lesson and I developed my systems/methods from this lesson (just look how much I have been rambling about convexity and the negative NY influence in the last 6 months). Yet I see gurus/clowns who comment on the market all the time, who have been involved with...

I started to trade and invest back in late 2006. It took me one bear cycle and one bull cycle to learn the lessons I needed and build a philosophy that is more robust and makes sense. The real world, trial and error and mistakes taught me what I needed to improve. I'm happy with that, most...

Yes I made mistakes but I learned from them. Back in 2011 I was still too deeply influenced by the New York finance literature and culture (which includes even decent books like Market Wizards) and this lead me to have a contrarian mindset that was inapropriate for the stock market. As far as...

https://tim.blog/2010/06/28/mba/ I might do something similar, set aside a few percentage of my capital to do some startup investing in Brazil and see if I get lucky. Worst case I'm down 2-3% and learned a few things. The tricky thing is the need for connections/contacts. Without the 4 Hour...

"* NONE of my best deals (Shyp, Shopify, Uber, Twitter, Facebook, Evernote, Alibaba, etc.) came from cold intros from acquaintances." - Tim Ferriss https://tim.blog/2015/10/29/startup-vacation-2/ That harder someone pushes someone else a 'convexity' bet (startup pitch, speculative equity...

Awesome website https://www.masterclass.com/ Many different skills taught by experienced practioneers. No theory, no "professors" or phony teachers. Hopefully there will be a finance/investing course down the line

I agree. He is intolerant and appears to have grandiose/ego tendencies. He reminds me of Ayn Rand, they might have good ideas but they are awful examples of how to behave. Taleb will list all many great reasons for lashing out at some people, he will say its all based on logic and the greater...

Its important to note that the 70% 30% balance that I referred to is what I believe it good for an investor's mindset, not to a portfolio (say 70% stocks 30% bonds) or the ideal balance for a trader. The portfolio allocation will depend on a lot of things like opportunities, cheapness of the...

https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/07/28/turns-out-that-instant-20000-stock-gain-was-a-mistake/ talk about a black swan

And what's funny is that he talks about how NY air traffic control people are much more of dicks/assholes than other places, as a result, this actually has an effect on Aviation (the whole Aviation chapter is awesome). In my experience, this assholeness correlates well with...

I'm reading Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell, this book is fantastic. I had avoided buying this book years before because I had read some negative articles about it saying that he was wrong about some stuff but its mostly bs, what he says in the book I find it very hard to debunk (People skill +...

I would note that this is similar to the NY type guy who talks shit about a certain stock/technology but does not have any short position on it and says "I'm not fighting this tape/trend/freight train". He will yap away all day long about how this or that is a bubble and is 'ridiculous' but...

"When this asymmetry is present, there is not a lot of margin for error for being a pessimist; quickly, it becomes an awful financial decision. This leads one to think that being an optimist by default is a superior mindset. An optimist needs to capture just a few highly successful investments...