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Cut back some more my Fed funds short. down to half of the original. Bad CPI report

Here is a fun little backtest showing that. 1926-2016 real returns: Not only gold added to returns (CAGR is actually a monthly return), it also improved risk adjusted returns (The Calmar is actually the MAR ratio CAGR/MaxDD, and it almost doubled). The added returns comes from rebalancing in...

A great way to think about gold is to think of it as something that 'mixes' up with government bonds and creates a very powerful and resilient synthetic security that is extremely resilient to different enviroments. If grandma puts all of her money in bonds, she will of course get killed during...

"When it comes to assessing political matters (especially global geopolitics like the North Korea matter), we are very humble. We know that we don’t have a unique insight that we’d choose to bet on. Most importantly, we aim to stay liquid, stay diversified, and not be overly exposed to any...

Also cut back on URA. The North Korea thing is not helping

I added to my SPY put positions today. Taking advantage of the low vol to get some protection in

Is Most Published Research Wrong?

Trump and North Korea exchange words about nuclear war, gold ramps several percent while 10 and 30y bonds are up modestly. That probably has more to do with the payoff matrix of each (gold has unlimited upside while bonds dont) rather than any market being 'smarter', or some kind of disagreement...

I guess the lesson for me is that if I cannot condense something into one "pop" example, then I dont understand it enough and I need to do more thinking about it. My ramblings on SF vs NY could have been summed with "The Buffett stock investing principles are a lot more common in SF than NY. NY...

So to try to sum in a way that is easy to understand, Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders should have been Market Wizards: Brokerage Statements from Top Traders. The latter would have been a lot more useful

Heck, I got through this myself. I tried to explain things are clearly as possible, yet it seems that most people will get a different message than I'm trying to convey in my article. This communication thing is difficult, but money speaks. You see someone buy or short ES, you understand quickly...

I do think there is more than integrity though. I think a lot of these people are trying to feed their inner biases because they think it will be helpful for them. Its like Chanos talking negatively about thinks, he thinks it will be good for him because he will help him because a better...

I sent my NY vs SF article to some people, one of them is Aaron Brown. I had read a piece by him on the stock market on bloomberg and liked what I saw. I learned a few things from his feedback, first that I'm an worse writer than I thought. Most people that read what I said, don't understand...

Let me argue a little about the other side. Here are some scenarios that I'm worried about for US stocks that could lead to huge declines (40-50% or more): -US corporate profit margin collapse. The S&P500 price to sales is high for a good reason, profitability (profit margins) are very high. If...

I have been hammering this for so long because it took me a long-time to realize it. I'm sure a lot of other people are/were in the same boat. For instance, one of the Market Wizards quotes that stuck with me for a long-time was Colm O'Shea quote of "Also, a problem I have with equities is that...

This is why I understand Ackman's decision to go with the VRX investment. People will look at the loss and say 'he is stupid, he lost 25% in one stock', but they don't realize that you can't have one without the other. He is up like what, 20x since his first fund (plus all the fees), you cant...

Whats funny is that Howard Marks, a conservative fixed income guy, most sucessful investment of all time (the 20% stake on Gundlachs firm) is an equity position that paid off exponentially. All his talk and bond investments mattered very little compared to the sucess of that stock position...

For more active forms of trading, its different. Almost anything goes, I have seen good traders that are very biased. There is one particular day and swing trader that I know that I can tell what he will say about a stock, before he is even asked about it. He is extremely negatively biased...

A lot of investors hurt themselves by trying to avoid 10-30% drops and miss out giant 500%+ gains (over the long-term) as a result. Annual accounting contribute to that as people think "either the market will rise 10% or fall 10% this year", they think there is a linear relationship but there...

Gundlach now: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-08/gundlach-wary-of-pricey-market-sets-cap-on-doubleline-s-growth “If you’re waiting for the catalyst to show itself, you’re going to be selling at a lower price," he said in a phone interview Monday from DoubleLine’s office in Los...