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So I saw this new ethereum game, its called Crypto Celebrities. My initial reaction was 'this is the stupidiest thing I have ever seen', it seemed like a greater fool game in a worthless underlying. But the more I thought about it, the more this thing its quite interesting actually. Essentially...

you can also use DasTrader with IB

I read an article, forgot where, that 40% of equity gains happen in the first year of a cycle and another 40% in the last year (the melt-up). That in the US over the last decades. So we have a situation where the yield curve could invert in the future, signaling a potential recession (I believe...

"Bitcoin is a currency without a government. But, one may ask, didn’t we have gold, silver and other metals, another class of currencies without a government? Not quite. When you trade gold, you trade “loco” Hong Kong and end up receiving a claim on a stock there, which you might need to move to...

Poker vs Trading https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/160069-fernando/5000801-transitioning-online-poker-trading-financial-markets

Standard Deviation of daily % changes per year in BTC vs SPY SPY in 2008 As a rule of thumb, BTC seems to be 5 times more volatile than stocks. As volatile as BTC has been, it does seem to be declining in vol overtime. Even the full mania of 2017 wasn't enough to get the vol as high as...

i tried to send funds to a crypto broker and had the wire rejected. i also tried to send funds from a corp IB account to a personal bank account but they prohibit that

gold had a speculative boom in the 70s/80s that finished with it dropping over 80% in inflation adjusted terms. booms and busts are normal in markets, what matters are the FEATURES one of asset vs the other

Another point, gold was hugely volatile in the 70's ((IIRC it went from $600 to $800 in one day and gave up those $200 the next day). That doesn't mean it isn't a store of value. The Dalio dismissal of bitcoin because of volatilty is ridiculous, what matters is how they structurally compare to...

I'm not sure they would allow one to store billions there (and its a trillion dollar asset). It seems that the limit is $1M, costs scale nonlinearly

where? gld seems to charge 0.4%

If BTC were at 2k, I would big on it. It would be a huge bargain. The market cap would be $34B, that compared to $7.5T in gold. One of my key trading and investing principles now is the authority of payoff matrixes. If BTC were to take 5% gold market to itself, it would be worth $375B. So...

I would like some opinions and inputs on how do the two compare to each other. A lot of the criticism that bitcoin receives from people like buffett and others can easily be applied to gold as well. They both dont have a stream of payments/dividends/earnings to be valued, they are mostly a...

At 5k-7k btc seems a good buy. if the bubble is over, you lose maybe 3k-4k. if it isnt, it goes to new ATHs and you make $15k+ a coin. good odds

That said, I do have been making a lot more of an effort lately to understand the technology better. I'm even planning to write some simple applications for ethereum. I want to understand how this all works at a deep level. This will help me pick ICOs as well as understand news, catalysts and...

The more useful bitcoin is (that is, the more real the technology) the more likely it is that its already or it will become a bubble. I just don't believe people will fairly price BTC all the way up. People will overshoot, as they often do. Its a new technology, it can change the world, its hard...

Looks like my hypothesis that cryptos are a bubble on fast forward is being proved incorrect. If that was correct, this market would have died after the BTC pullback from 19k down to 10.5k and then to 16k, which then corrected to 12.5k. IIRC, that happened right before christmas night. In the...

A significant 2017 booster for the Dalio portfolio in 2017 was the 40% he has in 30y bonds. TLT returned 8.7%. It remains to be seem how smart that strategy is. I'm not as bold as he is at this point in the cycle, especially with cash yielding 2% (1-2y bonds). I rather sit on that than TLT

I backout daytrading and swing trading results. In the case of crypto, its sorta investing, sorta day/swing trading, so I'm considering 1/2 of them investing, half of them day/swing trading. So half is not counted The Dalio portfolio returned 12% last year, I'm not sure about the other default...

I did the accounting for my last year results, it was a pretty good year. What I report in this journal tends to be my investing+macro results, so, backing out gains from day and swing trading. Its not easy to do the accounting because they are all mixed up in my brokers. But to be fair, I used...