Keep it simple and stick to the math..
If you want to ballpark probability,look at the Deltas of the strikes and go from there...
Play around with IV and see how it changes your likelyhood/odds
You are operating above my weekend paygrade,but Ill go out on a limb and bet you are using a pipe :)
On another note why the FOOK is a guy as bright as you trading thru Robin Hood??? (see above??)
You should read up on reversals and conversions,carrying costs,short stock rebates and the impact of dividends..A little understanding of synthetics would help as well
There must be some reason a smart guy like you trades thru Robin Hood,but if you went over to TOS,Tradier,IB you wouldnt be having this issue....
If you are hell bent on staying there,spend 15 bucks per month on OptionStrat..
Orats is the best program out there for analysis and backtesting. .Why do you need a visualiser?? Who do you trade thru..Dont they have a decent analyzer??
OptionStrat is a pretty decent basic visualizer if you don't have one
Keep in mind most of these programs can not custom adjust...
If you are into that sort of stuff,I think this is as good as it gets .
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3505045
Center of Volume Mass: Does Options Trading Predict Stock Returns?
Abstract
We examine whether the distribution of trades along the set of strike prices of...
If I am reading you correctly your Slope measure offers more information than the widely used 25 D put- 25 D call due to the "curvature" (gamma) at different percent of spot..
When I chart Skew in Orats,I typically look at the 25 D ratio of 75D/25D as well as 90D/10D
The difference between...
Barring div,an option is worth more alive than exercised.NWD pointed that one should short stock against the long call to get out and "get the put "for free..
Giving up the "free put" was why I questioned exercising early..
I should have added if there is a wide bid offer on the deep ITM and,you want out,selling stock and exercising may be the most efficient way of getting out...