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Cash secured put is not the way to go... Backspread is better,but not as good as a risk reversal

Risk reversal,assuming you really want to own the pig if it des go down significantly

Problem is you are turning a directional Short bet into a synthetic straddle and the guy is a complete newbie... We know he wants to be short..We have an idea of his risk reward ratio..Question is he better off naked short( with a stop),buying a put or buying a putspread/selling call spread...

You/I need to know the implied vol,prices and DTE of options availabe. Without that,you are trading blindfolded. Im assuming you know short future/long call is a synthetic put. Fwiw,the buying of 2 .50 calls to be fully hedged is a synthetic straddle.. Where is IV?? It appears you have a price...

I think we have a winner

I love when traders blabber on about the powers of compounding..

What's with trades 5,8,11 and 14?? 100 percent compounded wasn't enough??

Ahhh,I see you are an "educated consumer" and know what's up :) I dont love what you are doing as selling 2 -6 day gamma doesnt really accomplish much IMHO.. Whats the sense in selling a cash covered put where you will own the asset down 1-2 percent??

I use the models more for a safety check/confirming indicator.I dont like to shoot against them..Similar to how I incorporate fundamentals/Discounted Cash Flow models. Its also a bit helpful if trading term structure and longer dated options. I find Volatilty Cones more helpful... Hoadley is...

If you are hell bent on shorting strangled,why don't you run backtests on VIX/HV (as opposed to price)using whatever voodoo you like to see if you can come up with anything??? FWIW,2-6 day short strangles are a pure gamma bet,and being somewhat right on direction and managing the short gamma...

Let's go big boy..We know where this is heading...

OP,if you are intersted in the likelyhood of price movement from a "modeling" perspective,check out Hoadley's program...Its a bit dated,but you can look at Probability cones,Garch modeling,etc...Its obviously very theoretical,but its what you are looking for...If you want a sure thing,take...

Im truly humbled to be in your presence,but the OP appeared to be asking a question related to trading vol ,I.e predicting the likelihood of a sideways move for a given duration.

I'll bite..lets see some math..Are you running GARCH/ARCH models??

Read up on the BS option model and ND1 and ND2... Not the be all end all,but worth looking into

I posted this in the Cathy Woods thread,but it clearly illustrates why retail gets hammered.. ____________________________ For instance, Peter Lynch managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990, generating about a 29% average annualized return. Yet, according to a study by Fidelity...

What discount rate are you using to value cash flows?? Thats the issue in a rising interest rate enviorment... No pun intended,are you fundamentally against timing a trade?? Do you believe in MM ,I.e stops or adding to positions on bigger discounts to fair value as the stock trades lower??

Exactly where you went,which in my humble opinion is more a discretionary art form than anything else.Or a curve fitted optimisation :) Im not saying you aren't a great discretionary trader able to enter trades and rarely get stopped out,but that would make you a unicorn.Unicorns can take...

What does size have to do with entries vs exits???? Size is a function of "prudent" money managrment ,I.e determining how much capital to risk per trade,perhaps factoring volatility in order to set ones stop. I think I know where you are going with this,but basing size based off of entries is...

Trading off strict fundamentals will rarely if ever produce outsized returns..Yes,Lynch did but he had some distinct advatages the average retail guy did not.. Its fairly obvious you havent spent much time researching the topic..Look at who wins Norm Zadeh's trading championships with 100 plus...